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November 14, 2008

The Main Street recession is here

Remember when people were talking about the Wall Street meltdown as if it were separate from the "real" economy. Separation no more. This AP story and last week's employment report show that the crisis is "contained" no more. No wonder Paulson wants to stimulate consumer finance by buying car loans and credit-card loans.

Retail sales plunged by the largest amount on record in October as the financial crisis and the slumping economy caused consumers to sharply cut back on their spending.

The Commerce Department said Friday that retail sales fell by 2.8 percent last month, surpassing the old mark of a 2.65 percent drop in November 2001 in the wake of the terrorist attacks that year.

The decline in sales was led by a huge drop in auto purchases, but sales of all types of products from furniture to clothing fell as consumers retrenched.

Posted by Jay Hancock at 11:41 AM | | Comments (2)
        

Comments

The vast sums of money being dispensed forces me to wonder-- what would happen if instead of billions of dollars going to the biggest banks and corporations, every tax payer received an individual bail-out/financial disaster relief check of $20K? That way everyone could make their own decisions to direct money as they need or chose. This would be more reflective of free market survival instead of big government/big business manipulation. I have heard references to past instances where tax payer bailouts resulted in eventual profits. That sounds very nice but I never got any dividend for the savings and loan bailouts, Chrysler, airlines, etc. Billions and more likely trillions of dollars will evaporate into the economy. The same players will make out well and everyone will say things are just fine, but there are millions who will not be any better off, no matter what. Please explain why my plan is foolish.

One of the pundits on the Sunday news panel shows made a reference to the fact that all of the bailouts are going to the top–banking institutions and corporations. All of this money will require oversight and accountability that will suck out more money. Why not just send $20K to every adult who pays taxes or qualifies for tax credits? Let us spend, save or invest the money as we chose. This is the bailout for everyone. Bankers can do what they want with their money. Car manufacturers can do what they want with their money. Workers who are laid off or put out of work because of bankruptcies, etc. will have $20K for retraining, health, etc. Congress could decide to make reinvestment of the $20K in stocks, health insurance, cars, mortgage payments fax-free. Others would pay income tax on the $20K. There would be no additional bureaucracy to direct trillions of dollars into the economy that would evaporate before “real people” would see any benefit. My math suggests that this plan would not be any more expensive than the plans that have already been approved or are being proposed.

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About Jay Hancock
Jay Hancock has been a financial columnist for The Baltimore Sun since 2001. He has also been The Baltimore Sun's diplomatic correspondent in Washington and its chief economics writer. Before moving to Baltimore in 1994 he worked for The Virginian-Pilot of Norfolk and The Daily Press of Newport News.

His columns appear Tuesdays and Sundays.
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