Piece in today's Washington Post by Paul Light, one of the sharpest observers of the gears of government. Some highlights.

But if the past is prologue, his [Obama's] agenda is likely to be one of the smallest since the 1960s.

Obama's problem in going big is not just a lack of money, though interest payments on the nation's $10.5 trillion debt will soon come to rival the Social Security program in annual costs. Nor is it pent-up demand on Capitol Hill, though House and Senate leaders are well ahead of Obama in setting next year's agenda.

Rather, there is simply less room in government for the kind of breakthrough ideas that Obama has promised. He is not just in charge of all things new; he is also the caretaker of all things old. As the grand legislative achievements of the past continue to rust, presidents have become more repairmen than reformers...

How ironic, perhaps, that Nixon had more room for his legislative agenda under divided party control of government in 1969 than Clinton had under unified government in 1993. Although Obama is likely to have more proposals than Clinton, there will not be a New Deal or Great Society this coming year...

Obama would be wise to recognize these limits on his first-year agenda. Instead of throwing a super-size agenda at Congress, he should start with a few tightly focused progressive initiatives that will whet the political appetite for more. His best opportunity for a grand agenda may not be 2009 but 2013.