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September 10, 2008

Should Legg's Bill Miller step aside?

Today's column:

Legg Mason's Bill Miller isn't getting any love for his stock-picking. But perhaps we should admire him for his titanium stomach, in the way people appreciate snake charmers or Evel Knievel.

At a time when every other mutual-fund jockey is trying desperately to keep his or her job by playing it safe, losing only as much as the overall market and hoping no one notices, Miller refuses to take off his crash helmet.

His disastrous, repeated bets on housing and mortgage stocks have put Legg's flagship mutual fund in the ratings basement. The latest and most spectacular blooper was buying dead-meat mortgage financier Freddie Mac just before the government seized it Sunday and rendered its shares nearly worthless.

Unfortunately, Legg shareholders and clients aren't just watching from the stands. Miller has lost them billions. Something is wrong if there aren't serious discussions at 100 Light St. about shrinking his responsibilities or parting company.

Read the whole thing here.

Posted by Jay Hancock at 10:29 AM | | Comments (7)
        

Comments

Bill Miller is an American legend (beat the S&P 15 years in a row... 15 years in a row).

What mbviews says is very true, but you know what they say: Past performance is not necessarily indicative of future results.

If he does not improve the fund's performance, then Legg should consider any and all options.

Bill Miller is an American legend.

No doubt, history will remember him for what he is. A charlatan. He should be ashamed of risking mom and pop money with risk of ruin bets.

As a former MD at Legg Mason, I can state firsthand that the "culture of arrogance" fostered by Miller and his group of subserviant subordinates was the source of much negative chatter, overcome only by his past great performance. That said, the 15 year record which landed him among the "great investors" of all time has, in fact, been swamped by the past few years of horrendous performance. His trailing 1, 3, 5, and 10 year returns are now quite poor, and likely in the bottom quartile of all fund managers. If long term positive performance is truly the objective, he deserved to have been fired more than a year ago. The current market environment has demonstarted that financial institutions inherently trade on confidence -- witness the collapse of Bear Stearns, Freddie, Fannie, and now Lehman, and possibly Washington Mutual and AIG. Lehman's saga alone shows perception and "mark-to-market" issues matter much more than actual cash losses (noting the majority of non-subprime securities marked down in value have actually performed as expected). In that light, Legg Mason is at great risk, as it has lost the confidence of its client base, and could well sink into a "death spiral" of fund withdrawals that will make the Janus collapse circa 2001 seem a minor matter. Restoration of confidence requires dramatic action -- Miller should be replaced immediately, along wth Fetting (the architect of the CIti transaction - his elevation to CEO is analagous to hiring the fox to retool the chicken shed) and others. Perhaps Heebner or a great senior T. Rowe manager could be enticed to take the reins.

As a former MD at Legg Mason, I can state firsthand that the "culture of arrogance" fostered by Miller and his group of subserviant subordinates was the source of much negative chatter, overcome only by his past great performance. That said, the 15 year record which landed him among the "great investors" of all time has, in fact, been swamped by the past few years of horrendous performance. His trailing 1, 3, 5, and 10 year returns are now quite poor, and likely in the bottom quartile of all fund managers. If long term positive performance is truly the objective, he deserved to have been fired more than a year ago. The current market environment has demonstarted that financial institutions inherently trade on confidence -- witness the collapse of Bear Stearns, Freddie, Fannie, and now Lehman, and possibly Washington Mutual and AIG. Lehman's saga alone shows perception and "mark-to-market" issues matter much more than actual cash losses (noting the majority of non-subprime securities marked down in value have actually performed as expected). In that light, Legg Mason is at great risk, as it has lost the confidence of its client base, and could well sink into a "death spiral" of fund withdrawals that will make the Janus collapse circa 2001 seem a minor matter. Restoration of confidence requires dramatic action -- Miller should be replaced immediately, along wth Fetting (the architect of the CIti transaction - his elevation to CEO is analagous to hiring the fox to retool the chicken shed) and others. Perhaps Heebner or a great senior T. Rowe manager could be enticed to take the reins.

Ya indeed he is an American legend.His disastrous, repeated bets on housing and mortgage stocks have put Legg's flagship mutual fund in the ratings basement. He should be ashamed of his bad doings!

Yes. It was risky , But there should be deeper question asked about that subject. Did he has a plan behind his mnd for doing that.? As we all know stock markets has always been like waves of sea ( Up and down )

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About Jay Hancock
Jay Hancock has been a financial columnist for The Baltimore Sun since 2001. He has also been The Baltimore Sun's diplomatic correspondent in Washington and its chief economics writer. Before moving to Baltimore in 1994 he worked for The Virginian-Pilot of Norfolk and The Daily Press of Newport News.

His columns appear Tuesdays and Sundays.
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