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September 26, 2008

Hopkins economists against the bailout

Four economics professors at the Johns Hopkins University are on yesterday's petition against the bailout. They are:

Christopher Carroll, professor of economics

Hülya K. K Eraslan, associate professor of economics

Caroline Fohlin, research professor of economics

Stephen H. Shore, assistant professor of economics

Tiemen Woutersen, assistant professor of economics

Here is the petition:

To the Speaker of the House of Representatives and the President pro tempore of the Senate: As economists, we want to express to Congress our great concern for the plan proposed by Treasury Secretary Paulson to deal with the financial crisis. We are well aware of the difficulty of the current financial situation and we agree with the need for bold action to ensure that the financial system continues to function. We see three fatal pitfalls in the currently proposed plan: 1) Its fairness. The plan is a subsidy to investors at taxpayers’ expense. Investors who took risks to earn profits must also bear the losses. Not every business failure carries systemic risk. The government can ensure a well-functioning financial industry, able to make new loans to creditworthy borrowers, without bailing out particular investors and institutions whose choices proved unwise.


2) Its ambiguity. Neither the mission of the new agency nor its oversight are clear. If taxpayers are to buy illiquid and opaque assets from troubled sellers, the terms, occasions, and methods of such purchases must be crystal clear ahead of time and carefully monitored afterwards.

3) Its long-term effects. If the plan is enacted, its effects will be with us for a generation. For all their recent troubles, America's dynamic and innovative private capital markets have brought the nation unparalleled prosperity. Fundamentally weakening those markets in order to calm short-run disruptions is desperately short-sighted.

For these reasons we ask Congress not to rush, to hold appropriate hearings, and to carefully consider the right course of action, and to wisely determine the future of the financial industry and the U.S. economy for years to come.


Signed (updated at 9/25/2008 8:30AM CT)

Acemoglu Daron (Massachussets Institute of Technology)
Adler Michael (Columbia University)
Admati Anat R. (Stanford University)
Alexis Marcus (Northwestern University)
Alvarez Fernando (University of Chicago)
Andersen Torben (Northwestern University)
Baliga Sandeep (Northwestern University)
Banerjee Abhijit V. (Massachussets Institute of Technology)
Barankay Iwan (University of Pennsylvania)
Barry Brian (University of Chicago)
Bartkus James R. (Xavier University of Louisiana)
Becker Charles M. (Duke University)
Becker Robert A. (Indiana University)
Beim David (Columbia University)
Berk Jonathan (Stanford University)
Bisin Alberto (New York University)
Bittlingmayer George (University of Kansas)
Boldrin Michele (Washington University)
Brooks Taggert J. (University of Wisconsin)
Brynjolfsson Erik (Massachusetts Institute of Technology)
Buera Francisco J. (UCLA)
Camp Mary Elizabeth (Indiana University)
Carmel Jonathan (University of Michigan)
Carroll Christopher (Johns Hopkins University)
Cassar Gavin (University of Pennsylvania)
Chaney Thomas (University of Chicago)
Chari Varadarajan V. (University of Minnesota)
Chauvin Keith W. (University of Kansas)
Chintagunta Pradeep K. (University of Chicago)
Christiano Lawrence J. (Northwestern University)
Cochrane John (University of Chicago)
Coleman John (Duke University)
Constantinides George M. (University of Chicago)
Crain Robert (UC Berkeley)
Culp Christopher (University of Chicago)
Da Zhi (University of Notre Dame)
Davis Morris (University of Wisconsin)
De Marzo Peter (Stanford University)
Dubé Jean-Pierre H. (University of Chicago)
Edlin Aaron (UC Berkeley)
Eichenbaum Martin (Northwestern University)
Ely Jeffrey (Northwestern University)
Eraslan Hülya K. K.(Johns Hopkins University)
Faulhaber Gerald (University of Pennsylvania)
Feldmann Sven (University of Melbourne)
Fernandez-Villaverde Jesus (University of Pennsylvania)
Fohlin Caroline (Johns Hopkins University)
Fox Jeremy T. (University of Chicago)
Frank Murray Z.(University of Minnesota)
Frenzen Jonathan (University of Chicago)
Fuchs William (University of Chicago)
Fudenberg Drew (Harvard University)
Gabaix Xavier (New York University)
Gao Paul (Notre Dame University)
Garicano Luis (University of Chicago)
Gerakos Joseph J. (University of Chicago)
Gibbs Michael (University of Chicago)
Glomm Gerhard (Indiana University)
Goettler Ron (University of Chicago)
Goldin Claudia (Harvard University)
Gordon Robert J. (Northwestern University)
Greenstone Michael (Massachusetts Institute of Technology)
Guadalupe Maria (Columbia University)
Guerrieri Veronica (University of Chicago)
Hagerty Kathleen (Northwestern University)
Hamada Robert S. (University of Chicago)
Hansen Lars (University of Chicago)
Harris Milton (University of Chicago)
Hart Oliver (Harvard University)
Hazlett Thomas W. (George Mason University)
Heaton John (University of Chicago)
Heckman James (University of Chicago - Nobel Laureate)
Henderson David R. (Hoover Institution)
Henisz, Witold (University of Pennsylvania)
Hertzberg Andrew (Columbia University)
Hite Gailen (Columbia University)
Hitsch Günter J. (University of Chicago)
Hodrick Robert J. (Columbia University)
Hopenhayn Hugo (UCLA)
Hurst Erik (University of Chicago)
Imrohoroglu Ayse (University of Southern California)
Isakson Hans (University of Northern Iowa)
Israel Ronen (London Business School)
Jaffee Dwight M. (UC Berkeley)
Jagannathan Ravi (Northwestern University)
Jenter Dirk (Stanford University)
Jones Charles M. (Columbia Business School)
Kaboski Joseph P. (Ohio State University)
Kahn Matthew (UCLA)
Kaplan Ethan (Stockholm University)
Karolyi, Andrew (Ohio State University)
Kashyap Anil (University of Chicago)
Keim Donald B (University of Pennsylvania)
Ketkar Suhas L (Vanderbilt University)
Kiesling Lynne (Northwestern University)
Klenow Pete (Stanford University)
Koch Paul (University of Kansas)
Kocherlakota Narayana (University of Minnesota)
Koijen Ralph S.J. (University of Chicago)
Kondo Jiro (Northwestern University)
Korteweg Arthur (Stanford University)
Kortum Samuel (University of Chicago)
Krueger Dirk (University of Pennsylvania)
Ledesma Patricia (Northwestern University)
Lee Lung-fei (Ohio State University)
Leeper Eric M. (Indiana University)
Leuz Christian (University of Chicago)
Levine David I.(UC Berkeley)
Levine David K.(Washington University)
Levy David M. (George Mason University)
Linnainmaa Juhani (University of Chicago)
Lott John R. Jr. (University of Maryland)
Lucas Robert (University of Chicago - Nobel Laureate)
Luttmer Erzo G.J. (University of Minnesota)
Manski Charles F. (Northwestern University)
Martin Ian (Stanford University)
Mayer Christopher (Columbia University)
Mazzeo Michael (Northwestern University)
McDonald Robert (Northwestern University)
Meadow Scott F. (University of Chicago)
Mehra Rajnish (UC Santa Barbara)
Mian Atif (University of Chicago)
Middlebrook Art (University of Chicago)
Miguel Edward (UC Berkeley)
Miravete Eugenio J. (University of Texas at Austin)
Miron Jeffrey (Harvard University)
Moretti Enrico (UC Berkeley)
Moriguchi Chiaki (Northwestern University)
Moro Andrea (Vanderbilt University)
Morse Adair (University of Chicago)
Mortensen Dale T. (Northwestern University)
Mortimer Julie Holland (Harvard University)
Muralidharan Karthik (UC San Diego)
Nanda Dhananjay (University of Miami)
Nevo Aviv (Northwestern University)
Ohanian Lee (UCLA)
Pagliari Joseph (University of Chicago)
Papanikolaou Dimitris (Northwestern University)
Parker Jonathan (Northwestern University)
Paul Evans (Ohio State University)
Pejovich Svetozar (Steve) (Texas A&M University)
Peltzman Sam (University of Chicago)
Perri Fabrizio (University of Minnesota)
Phelan Christopher (University of Minnesota)
Piazzesi Monika (Stanford University)
Piskorski Tomasz (Columbia University)
Rampini Adriano (Duke University)
Reagan Patricia (Ohio State University)
Reich Michael (UC Berkeley)
Reuben Ernesto (Northwestern University)
Roberts Michael (University of Pennsylvania)
Robinson David (Duke University)
Rogers Michele (Northwestern University)
Rotella Elyce (Indiana University)
Ruud Paul (Vassar College)
Safford Sean (University of Chicago)
Sandbu Martin E. (University of Pennsylvania)
Sapienza Paola (Northwestern University)
Savor Pavel (University of Pennsylvania)
Scharfstein David (Harvard University)
Seim Katja (University of Pennsylvania)
Seru Amit (University of Chicago)
Shang-Jin Wei (Columbia University)
Shimer Robert (University of Chicago)
Shore Stephen H. (Johns Hopkins University)
Siegel Ron (Northwestern University)
Smith David C. (University of Virginia)
Smith Vernon L.(Chapman University- Nobel Laureate)
Sorensen Morten (Columbia University)
Spiegel Matthew (Yale University)
Stevenson Betsey (University of Pennsylvania)
Stokey Nancy (University of Chicago)
Strahan Philip (Boston College)
Strebulaev Ilya (Stanford University)
Sufi Amir (University of Chicago)
Tabarrok Alex (George Mason University)
Taylor Alan M. (UC Davis)
Thompson Tim (Northwestern University)
Tschoegl Adrian E. (University of Pennsylvania)
Uhlig Harald (University of Chicago)
Ulrich, Maxim (Columbia University)
Van Buskirk Andrew (University of Chicago)
Veronesi Pietro (University of Chicago)
Vissing-Jorgensen Annette (Northwestern University)
Wacziarg Romain (UCLA)
Weill Pierre-Olivier (UCLA)
Williamson Samuel H. (Miami University)
Witte Mark (Northwestern University)
Wolfers Justin (University of Pennsylvania)
Woutersen Tiemen (Johns Hopkins University)
Zingales Luigi (University of Chicago)
Zitzewitz Eric (Dartmouth College)


Posted by Jay Hancock at 10:00 AM | | Comments (13)
        

Comments

Thanks for posting. Hopefully Pelosi reads her mail.

Turned from distracting smoke and mirrors, the real problem belongs not to "Wall Street" and those whose game of choice is trading in what they like to call a "free market" but to the neighborhoods of "Main Street" losing credit and credibility to empty, unmaintained properties foreclosed upon in a frenzy of insanity.

These properties are "real" estate. They have value. Not so high as the bubble tried to make us believe, but real value, especially to those who thought of them as "home." A real cure for what ails US economy would encourage the profit motive and sanity, enlist investors (looking desperately for somewhere to put the money they have taken out of karmically challenged investment banks) to buy these properties and work out mortgage or rental arrangements with those who want to live in and maintain them, by-pass the whole evil episode and get back to market trade based on real values that can be easily understood by Main Street and learned through experience by Wall Street.

Congress ought to demand unbundled mortgages be sold at bargain basement prices to local financial institutions and groups then required to work out equitable arrangements with homeowners/residents to keep them in those homes. This is how it should have been, mortgages held by community lenders who have a stake in keeping the community healthy and the authority to work out compromise arrangements with their customers.

Laurie Corzett
libramoon42@mindspring.com

Four economics professors? I count five. Sort of like the difference between a 9 trillion dollar deficit and a 10 trillion dollar deficit ...

The US economic rescue seems a better investment than the $800 billion sunk into Iraq.

This isn't just Hopkins it's the whole country. Even the Banana Slugs are against this Bail out. I can only hope this works a little to slow he National Socialism that has gripped the Government.

Alternative Plan to TARP, noting that we need BOTH public sector involvement and private sector incentives --

(1) Create new govt surety (“Federal Mortgage Guaranty Corp” or FMGC) – which would guaranty the principal (but NOT the interest) on ALL single family mortgages closed before 1/1/07, in return for guaranty fee on all mortgages held by each participating institution, regardless of collateral quality i.e. fees on “good debt” used to build up fund to cover losses. Also fund the surety with a guaranty by the Treasury, to ensure an AAA rating. Would have effect of reversing major portion of the “mark-to-market” writedowns, restoring significant portions of both Tier I capital and confidence. Banks would have 30 days to permanently opt in or out of program on "all or none" basis i.e. have to pay insurance premiums (out of interest received) on all mortgages in their portfolios if they elect to “opt in.” FMGC would pay claims if and only if it received delivery of the underlying mortgages upon default, keeping FMGC out of the fairly complex (and underestimated) difficult business of having to unwind securities, negotiate with servicers, etc. As a separate public policy matter, Congress can debate later whether to give forbearance, etc. to homeowners whose loans have been acquired by FMGC (noting that inserting forbearance and forgiveness agendas into the TARP plan could undue mortgage markets in the future). Do NOT purchase mortgage or other asset-backed securities outright - would only serve to create mark-to-market distortions (positively or negatively).

(2) Create $100 billion (or more) U.S. Sovereign Wealth Fund (USSWF) – in effect, matching efforts already undertaken by China, Singapore, Korea, etc. USSWF would be empowered to invest in “anything”, specifically preferred stock issued by U.S. financial institutions. Use the USSWF to target investments in the most troubled institutions.

(3) Make home mortgage principal (i.e. in addition to interest) repayments tax-deductible for next 3 years only, with a “2 for 1” deduction for any principal repayment made by 12/31/08 – motivate those with cash to pay down debt, and thereby provide cash/liquidity to banking institutions. There exists $4-5 trillion in money market and other cash equivalents “on the sidelines”, dwarfing the amount the govt. can bring to bear.

(4) Make dividends payable on any preferred stock issued by any U.S. bank or securities firm by 12/31/08 permanently tax-free. Make any capital gains earned from any conversion to common and subsequent sale of stock be tax-free, as well. Would propel recapitalization of banks by private sector. Again, there exists $4-5 trillion in money market and other cash equivalents “on the sidelines dwarfing the amount the govt. can bring to bear. Would also motivate individuals and other institutions to “act like Buffett” and participate in their own acquisitions of preferreds (whether convertible or not).

I agree with the comments by Terry. After all, no one should expect their home to double in value in 10 years. 1. You buy a home as a LONG TERM investment- to live in with your family. These are homes. Even if the value has declined you still have a place to rest your head.
2. Wouldn't it be better for the banks, etc to renegotiate the loan at terms that the borrower can afford to pay than throwing the whole loan out and foreclosing. If the bailout only gives 10 cents on the dollar for the loan, couldn't you work out better terms with the existing borrower?

I don't see their proposal? Did I miss it? It is easy to critcize a difficult situation when their are few choices, but where is their solution? This financial crisis isn't just going to hurt Wall Street, it will hurt you and I. Baby boomers are about to retire in record numbers-or will they? Retirement savings will be destroyed, people will not be able to send their kids to college, the retail sector will be leveled.

I am tired of talk. I want solutions. Should I sign a petition?

How did we get HERE?
FACT: Goldman-Sachs
their Executives & Board of Directors
March 20th, 2000, sell off by
top Wall Street Firms of Tech stocks, then Merrill, then Lehman, check Exchange Records
and "other sources". they bought GW
Bush to power, part of the most
corrupt Presidential Family in American History. Check who
Bucky Bush is, who is Sister
Koch-Bush is,who Cheney is, C Rice
( former Shell Oil employee now
Sec. of State), all criminals in
power. Total Power corrupts
totally...Federal Reserve has
many SR. Bush Supporters and
Cabinet Members. Bailout or
Bush Treason....put them all on
trail then Hang Them.
By the way who sat on the Board
of Directors of Goldman-Sachs on March 2000, 1 rep from the Bill &
Melinda Gates Foundation, 1 from
Intel, etc. ...profiting from the collapse
of a 4 trillion dollar economy based
upon the future for a GW Bush
False Economy one of a False
War and False Housing Economy
It is time to put them all on trail!

Thank you to all who helped fight against this "bailout bill". I am not an economist but my husband and I understand how the financials work. Four years ago, (not so financially savy) we purchase our home and were talked into the "newest way" to finance a home. This was how all mortgages were being sold, with our good credit we signed on the dotted line. We purchased our home for $150,000...Our mortgage payments were $700 for the first two years and we were told to refinance at a fixed rate in that time, we refinanced only to be told we could not have a fixed mortgage rate and our payment went to $1320/month. This year, due to the credit crunch, we cannot refinance and our mortgage will reset at $1990/ month for a $150,000 loan. We both work and have three children and good credit. We are both college educated. This is what congress, Paulson and the President need to understand. We are Main St americans who need HELP! We need someone to rewrite all of these mortgages and give us a reasonable rate.

I am wondering that rather than buying Mortgage back securities from the troubled financial institutions, why aren't we thinking about using the pool of money ($700Billion) to pick up foreclosed properties from the market. Once the inventory of foreclosed home reduce, demand might pick up, stabilizing the house prices. Once the prices stabilize, start selling the foreclosed houses. In the meantime, short term (month to month or three months) rental leases can be written at discounted prices. Perhaps the homeowners who are going to lose their house might use the reduced rents to stay in the home through the winter... Am I missing something?

The money to alleviate the credit crunch is actually still there on Wall St. Just look at the amount of $ going into short term T-bills. Wall St. investment banks just want taxpayers to buy their mistakes so they can....what? Make more questionable loans.

I've been thinking about this a lot (as we all have) and it just occurred to me tonight... I'm be more than happy to agree with the "rescue" plan if Congress will do two things...

1. Hold themselves accountable (by name... not House or Senate but by individual names) if this thing doesn't work. I want to know who screwed up!
2. Agree to some punishment if their plan doesn't do what they are promising it will do. Punishment and an agreement that they will resign their post... Immediately!

I want to see some accountability before I will agree to this approach.

I've been thinking about this a lot (as we all have) and it just occurred to me tonight... I'm be more than happy to agree with the "rescue" plan if Congress will do two things...

1. Hold themselves accountable (by name... not House or Senate but by individual names) if this thing doesn't work. I want to know who screwed up!
2. Agree to some punishment if their plan doesn't do what they are promising it will do. Punishment and an agreement that they will resign their post... Immediately!

I want to see some accountability before I will agree to this approach.

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About Jay Hancock
Jay Hancock has been a financial columnist for The Baltimore Sun since 2001. He has also been The Baltimore Sun's diplomatic correspondent in Washington and its chief economics writer. Before moving to Baltimore in 1994 he worked for The Virginian-Pilot of Norfolk and The Daily Press of Newport News.

His columns appear Wednesdays and Fridays.
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