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August 28, 2008

New economic numbers undermine recession talk

The government reported this morning that the economy grew at a healthy, 3.3 percent annual rate in three months that ended in June. It's a preliminary reading and will be revised. Even so, it's inconvenient evidence for those who argue that the country is in a recession. (Who are these doomsayers? See here and here and here. For a sunnier evaluation, see here. )

True, the country has been shedding jobs all year, which is a hallmark of recession. But economic output is the other key metric for calling a recession, and the second quarter output was what economists like to call "robust." We may again be seeing the pattern of the early 2000s, when GDP grew at healthy levels but employment didn't. We're clearly in a jobs recession.

Posted by Jay Hancock at 9:58 AM | | Comments (0)
        

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About Jay Hancock
Jay Hancock has been a financial columnist for The Baltimore Sun since 2001. He has also been The Baltimore Sun's diplomatic correspondent in Washington and its chief economics writer. Before moving to Baltimore in 1994 he worked for The Virginian-Pilot of Norfolk and The Daily Press of Newport News.

His columns appear Wednesdays and Fridays.
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