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Don't get excited over 'housing rebound' story

The lede from this morning's story on April housing starts looks great:

Construction of new homes posted the biggest increase in more than two years in April, a rare spot of good news amid the worst downturn in housing in more than two decades.

Small problem, however: All the gain came from APARTMENT buildings, not single-family homes. Naturally the people getting kicked out of their homes need cheaper places to live. Now builders, responding to higher demand and rising rents, are providing. But this isn't exactly a sign of a hearty economy. One of the marks of the housing bubble was a gap between carrying costs for single-family homes -- the (fully indexed and adjusted) mortgage payment -- and the carrying cost for apartments --the rent. That gap has to shrink or disappear for the bubble to resolve. But the shrinkage doesn't just involve falling home prices and mortgage payments. It also involves rising rents, and this is one sign.

The strength in April came entirely from a huge increase in apartment construction, which can be extremely volatile from month to month. Apartment building, defined as two or more units, jumped by 36 percent to a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 340,000 units.

The larger single-family sector dropped by 1.7 percent to an annual rate of 692,000 units...

The National Association of Home Builders reported Thursday that its monthly survey of builder sentiment edged down in May to a reading of 19, just above the all-time low of 18 set in December. The survey had held steady at the low level of 20 from February through April.

David Seiders, the group's chief economist, said that conditions in the industry have continued to deteriorate.

Posted by Jay Hancock at 10:25 AM | | Comments (3)
        

Comments

Thanks Jay. Thank God someone is taking the time to dissect these phony numbers and translate them to real ones. You can also add unemployment and inflation figures to the mix as well. Those stats have been so cooked and gerrymandered over the past 20 years, they are nearly meaningless

Structures with 2-4 units and 5+ units are not necessarily "apartments." Within existing homes, Condominiums represent nearly one in eight home sales. March existing home sales of 4.93 million, the seasonally adjusted annual rate (SAAR), contained 0.58 million condo sales, or just under 12%. That's near the 1999-present monthly average of 11.8%. I would hypothesize that as single family homes become more expensive, condo sales would increase, because the fixed cost of land and other components within the total bill of goods in a home is lower, per condo, than for single family free-standing homes.

Regarding the disconnect between mortgage payments and rents, I created a spreadsheet in November which calculated the correction of home prices and rents based on historical Price to Rent ratios. You can see my post about this by googling "price correction calculator" and the first few results all link to my file. The data is based off a Fortune magazine article and the analysis I did was covered by the WSJ. Baltimore is set for 27.8% home price declines while rents should increase 11.3% to fall back in line with historical P/R ratios.

Cheers,

Kevin

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About the blogger
Jay Hancock has been a financial columnist for The Baltimore Sun since 2001. He has also been The Baltimore Sun's diplomatic correspondent in Washington and its chief economics writer. Before moving to Baltimore in 1994 he worked for The Virginian-Pilot of Norfolk and The Daily Press of Newport News.

His columns appear Wednesdays and Fridays.
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