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April 30, 2008

The next bubble: Emerging markets?

Everybody's trying to predict the next bubble. Reuters columnist James Saft says it may be emerging markets.

Emerging markets are very likely the next bubble, but don't let that stop you.

Emerging market shares are already expensive relative to developed market ones, but economic growth in places like China and India will continue to pull away, and investors will pay an increasing premium for that, especially if the ageing economic giants of the 20th century slip from their long term growth paths.

And in a process we've seen before with internet stocks and houses, big returns will attract big money, driving further rises and making it all seem very sensible, at least for a while.

The definition of "a while" is of course, as with all bubbles, the key question.

Posted by Jay Hancock at 5:30 PM | | Comments (0)
        

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About Jay Hancock
Jay Hancock has been a financial columnist for The Baltimore Sun since 2001. He has also been The Baltimore Sun's diplomatic correspondent in Washington and its chief economics writer. Before moving to Baltimore in 1994 he worked for The Virginian-Pilot of Norfolk and The Daily Press of Newport News.

His columns appear Wednesdays and Fridays.
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