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April 28, 2008

Carlyle's Rubenstein bullish on U.S. finance industry

Blurbs from a confab of the Society of American Business Editors and Writers, being held at the Sheraton Waterfront in Baltimore this week. Carlyle Group co-founder David Rubenstein spoke early this afternoon. Carlyle Group is one of the best-known private equity funds.

Rubenstein:

"Right now, the single greatest investment opportunity in the U.S. are our financial institutions. Nothing else comes close." Said Carlyle will be taking financial equity positions as well as buying back some of its own credit extended to financial shops.

Said sovereign wealth funds from China, the Middle East and elsewhere have been offended by questions about their transparency in the United States. This could repel them from U.S. markets, he said, which of course has implications for liquidity.

"I think the sovereign wealth funds are a little bit disgusted with the way they've been treated by U.S. officials. I don't think they're going to rush to do those deals again."

The second session comprised mutual fund stars Brian Rogers from T. Rowe Price and Robert Hagstrom from Legg Mason. I didn't take notes because I was moderating, but both managers believe the worst of the U.S. credit crunch is over and expect stocks to do well later this year. Both see the Bear Stearns collapse as the nadir of the credit trough.

Hagstrom is impressed with low P/E multiples on U.S. stocks and especially likes certain parts of the wireless and Internet businesses. Rogers is surprised at how high oil has gone. The last $30 a barrel of increase doesn't obviously come from fundamentals, he said. But he owns big pieces of oil companies.

Hagstrom, who wrote The Warren Buffett Way and other books on Buffett, was very surprised that Buffett is buying Wrigley at 29 times earnings -- a lot. But maybe Buffett sees that Wrigley and other makers of consumer nondurables are going to have the ability to raise prices that they haven't had for a long time, Hagstrom said. He said he'd take a closer look. He also thinks things may be turning around for Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac, the government-backed mortgage packagers.


Posted by Jay Hancock at 6:19 PM | | Comments (1)
        

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About Jay Hancock
Jay Hancock has been a financial columnist for The Baltimore Sun since 2001. He has also been The Baltimore Sun's diplomatic correspondent in Washington and its chief economics writer. Before moving to Baltimore in 1994 he worked for The Virginian-Pilot of Norfolk and The Daily Press of Newport News.

His columns appear Wednesdays and Fridays.
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