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March 13, 2008

What I bet Bernanke is doing right now

He is probably pleading with Citigroup, Deutsche Bank and other creditors seizing Carlyle Capital Group's mortgage bonds not to dump them on the market. This is turning into an avalanche that nobody can stop. Hedge funds and mortgage REITS have bought mortgage bonds by employing enormous leverage -- meaning they borrowed most of the money to make the purchases. It works fine as long as the market value of the bonds is at least equal to the amount of borrowed money. But when the value declines, lenders make "margin calls" demanding new collateral. Margin calls prompt fire sales of bonds so investors can raise cash collateral. That makes bond prices plunge, which prompts new margin calls, which prompts more sales... This even though these are Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac bonds, implicitly backed by the federal government.

Usually when creditors seize securities in margin accounts they dump them immediately. Bernanke is wishing, hoping and probably pleading for this not to happen.

Posted by Jay Hancock at 11:07 AM | | Comments (0)
        

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About Jay Hancock
Jay Hancock has been a financial columnist for The Baltimore Sun since 2001. He has also been The Baltimore Sun's diplomatic correspondent in Washington and its chief economics writer. Before moving to Baltimore in 1994 he worked for The Virginian-Pilot of Norfolk and The Daily Press of Newport News.

His columns appear Tuesdays and Sundays.
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