Perpetual optimist Ed Yardeni, a well-known economist and investment strategist, has thrown in the towel. Here is an excerpt from his message to clients this morning, entitled Recession Now; Godot Has Arrived:

I think we are falling into a consumer-led recession. I’ve been fighting recession and mid-cycle slowdown scenarios for the US since 2003. I’ve been saying don’t bet against American consumers so long as employment is growing. I’ve argued that financial crises tend to be buying opportunities if the Fed responds by easing aggressively and averts a recession. Now, I think that the latest business cycle peak probably occurred in January. February was probably the first month of the recession. Real GDP is likely to be down during Q1 and Q2 by 1%-2%, rather than up by 1%-2%, as I previously predicted. I think the economy will recover during the second half of the year, assuming another 100bps cut in the federal funds rate soon.