The people who manipulate -- err, I mean manage -- the Dow Jones Industrial Average made their first change since 2004 this morning. They kicked out cancer vendor Altria (Philip Morris) and Honeywell and added Chevron and Bank of America. This is a pretty good sign that the bull market in oil and commodities is over. The Dow has a history of "buying high" and "selling low," just like the amateur, "buy the latest fad" investors that the Wall Street Journal likes to make fun of.

At the end of 1999 -- near the peak of the tech bubble, and near the bottom of the bear market in oil stocks, the Dow ejected Chevron and three other stocks in favor of Intel, Microsoft, SBC and Home Depot. At the time Chevron was selling for around $45. Now it's selling for around $80. Intel and Microsoft sell for less than what they fetched when they were inducted into the Dow. Here is the press release for today's Dow announcement.