Bloomberg's John Berry, co-dean of the nation's economics journalists (many share the title: Allan Sloan, Floyd Norris, David Wessel), says the economy will avoid going into reverse. I think he might be right.

Berry:

Some analysts were predicting a recession would hit the U.S. economy in the fourth quarter as consumers, hurt by falling house prices and the high cost of gasoline, cut spending.

It didn't happen, and there's no reason to think it's going to this year either.

Economic growth will be slow in the first half of 2008, and the unemployment rate, which was still a low 4.7 percent in November, is likely to rise. Housing sales and construction will continue to be a drag for months to come.

On the other hand, economic growth should accelerate in the second half of the year as financial-market conditions and the U.S. trade deficit improve, the housing drag lessens and the effect of the 100-basis-point cut in the Federal Reserve's overnight lending-rate target in recent months begins to kick in.

Some optimistic analysts believe growth might rebound to a 3 percent rate in the second half.

Given the turmoil in financial markets, the risk of a recession is hardly zero. Nevertheless, the current state of the economy simply doesn't show the signs usually associated with one.

In a forecast released today, Mickey D. Levy, chief economist at Banc of America Securities, said most recessions have begun after the Federal Reserve raises interest rates and ``generates a slump in aggregate demand.''

``As a result, expansion peaks tend to be characterized by overhangs in inventories, too many employees and excess capital stock relative to output,'' Levy said.