The always-interesting David Rosenberg from Merrill Lynch:

Delayed refunds could result in increased delinquencies This year's individual tax refunds will be delayed since Congress just finally passed the one-year patch for the Alternative Minimum Tax (AMT). This will play havoc with the January-February after-tax (disposable) income and spending data, which will be based on seasonal factors that expect the typical distribution of tax refunds. Moreover, the delay could result in increased credit card and mortgage payment delinquencies. Many early tax filers count on the refunds to paydown credit card balances following the holiday season. The timing is not good, since it comes at a time when we are already seeing rising delinquency rates.