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October 31, 2007

Positive surprises in the economic growth report

From the Commerce Department's dispatch on third-quarter economic growth, which came in at a surprisingly high annual rate of 3.9 percent. This is 30 percent better growth than economists expected and shows that housing problems have been less of an overall economic drag than many thought.

-- Car production increased tenfold: "Motor vehicle output contributed 0.33 percentage point to the third-quarter growth in real GDP after contributing 0.03 percentage point to the second-quarter growth."

-- After-inflation consumer spending accelerated even as the mortgage crisis got worse: "Real personal consumption expenditures increased 3.0 percent in the third quarter, compared with
an increase of 1.4 percent in the second." (The report also shows that residential investment plunged by a fifth.)

-- Imports increased even as they got more expensive because of the cheaper dollar: "Real imports of goods and services increased 5.2 percent" compared with 2nd-quarter imports.

-- Not surprising but very good news: "Real exports of goods and services increased 16.2 percent in the third quarter, compared with an increase of 7.5 percent in the second." A 16 percent pop is the best quarter-to-quarter gain since 2003. The cheaper dollar makes U.S.-made goods more affordable for overseas buyers.

Posted by Jay Hancock at 11:52 AM | | Comments (0)
        

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About Jay Hancock
Jay Hancock has been a financial columnist for The Baltimore Sun since 2001. He has also been The Baltimore Sun's diplomatic correspondent in Washington and its chief economics writer. Before moving to Baltimore in 1994 he worked for The Virginian-Pilot of Norfolk and The Daily Press of Newport News.

His columns appear Wednesdays and Fridays.
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