Climate-change deniers will make much of the hacked emails at the University of Anglia showing global-warming researchers deprecating their opponents and expressing frustration that data show planetary temperatures temporarily declining. Like anybody with a cause, scientists worried about climate change want to press their views as aggressively and persuasively as possible. Can't wait to see the image of (presumably) Pat Michaels and other skeptics stranded on an iceberg after the polar caps have melted. Couldn't find it on the Web so far.

For example, in one of the emails, not cited in the New York Times piece referenced above, Michael Mann, then at the University of Virginia, now at Penn State, says "we need to cover our behinds on what was done here, lest we be vulnerable to the snipings of the Idsos and co (i.e., that non-climatic influences on recent growth were nominally dealt w/, as in MBH99)." (Craig Idso and his relatives run the Center for the Study of Carbon Dioxide and Global Change, which says: "Tired of alarmist global warming propaganda?")

To put this in a fair light, we should have somebody hack the deniers' emails. Of course their correspondence would show only honest and faithful guidance by the data, wherever it might lead, and dignified respect for their opponents!

Climate change is not a continuous upward curve. If temperatures showed a long, unbroken upward slope, that really would be proof of a conspiracy. There are fluctuations. Sometimes temperatures go down for a year or few, which gives fodder to the talk radio blabbers. For climate scientists to be frustrated that this hurts the case for political action against climate change is natural.

Continue reading "Shocker: Climate scientists are petty, vindictive" »

Posted by Jay Hancock at 9:21 AM | Permalink | Comments (14)
Categories: Energy
        

As Jamie Smith Hopkins reports, mortgage delinquencies keep rising and are now occurring in a huge way among borrowers who had been rated good credit risks. Just about every category of mortgages gone bad hit a new record in the third quarter, according to the Mortgage Bankers Association. Rising unemployment is a primary cause. "Job losses continue to increase and drive up delinquencies and foreclosures because mortgages are paid with paychecks, not percentage point increases in GDP," chief economist Jay Brinkmann said in the MBA's press release.

One piece of data lacking in the survey is the vintage of the mortgages going bad -- ie., how long ago were they issued? It's relevant because even today, after all we've been through, there are reasons to question the lending standards on newly issued mortgages. Especially loans guaranteed by the FHA. As many have pointed out and as today's column notes, we're trying to solve a debt crisis by issuing more debt.

Federal Housing Administration-backed loans have soared in the last year, but the foreclosure rate on FHA loans has risen even higher! Says Brinkmann:

The foreclosure rate on FHA loans also increased, despite having a large increase in the number

Continue reading "How many delinquencies are on new mortgages? " »

Posted by Jay Hancock at 8:05 AM | Permalink | Comments (6)
Categories: The Great Recession
        

Stopped at T. Rowe Price's annual investment symposium at the Waterfront Marriott this morning. I only caught an hour, but the plenary panel on the global investment environment was, on the whole, quite positive. The panelists were relieved that the world has stepped away from the economic abyss, surprised at how quickly financial markets have snapped back since March and cautiously optimistic that there's still some upside.

The panelists were Christopher Alderson, CEO of T. Rowe Price International, John Linehan, co-director of U.S. equities and Mary Miller, director of fixed income. Here are some snippets:

The panelists see plenty of investors still waiting to dive in to the markets. "There's still a huge amount of cash on the sidelines," said Linehan. Said Miller: "I'm familiar with one institution that just borrowed $400 million because they could and then called up and said, 'What should we do with it?'"

Miller: "We have had a remarkable recovery this year in the credit markets." The economy is "out of the ICU" and "out of the emergency room" and on "outpatient status." But economic performance is lagging behind the markets, she said, and commercial real estate credit is "still struggling."

Investors are still "hesitant," she said, with lots of money going into conservative short-term bond funds instead of stocks. "There's enormous relief, and that's all to the good. But I think the psychology is still pretty fragile."

Alderson sees short-term interest rates staying low as global central bankers continue extraordinary economic stimulus. But, he said, "it's starting to create problems in other part of the world" as cheap dollar-denominated loans are cranking up asset prices. Recently in Hong Kong, he said, a 1,000-square-foot apartment sold for $12 million -- evidence of a bubble.

Continue reading "T. Rowe Price panelists bullish on stocks, economy" »

Posted by Jay Hancock at 10:58 AM | Permalink | Comments (0)
Categories: The Great Recession
        

Jamie Smith Hopkins writes in today's Sun about downsizing moves by home owners -- and not just retirees and empty nesters. Home builders are joining the small-house trend, too. They've figured out that Americans can afford less house and often want smaller even if they can afford bigger. At the same time, builders need a product to compete with all the foreclosed houses that still flood the market and keep falling in price.

Compact starter homes are a way to do that. KB Home introduced its Open Series of homes this year, which it says have been selling nicely. Open Series designs range from 1,239 to 2,300 square feet, according to Builder online, and are priced less than $120,000 in Las Vegas and less than $300,000 in California. To save space without making people feel cramped they combine the kitchen, dining and living spaces in one, wall-less area. (Here's a video.) Two months ago KB said it was relaunching operations in Maryland, and it looks like it'll push the Open Series hard here. D.R. Horton and other builders are also offering smaller homes, says Seeking Alpha.

All in all, a good trend. Smaller houses, smaller energy bills, smaller mortgages. It will, however, mean much lower profits for builders. (Full disclosure: Your blogger & Mrs. Hancock, new empty nesters, live in a house of 2,300 square feet, according to the State Department of Assessments & Taxation. Seems too big.)

Posted by Jay Hancock at 7:00 AM | Permalink | Comments (5)
Categories: The Great Recession
        

Excellent post on the Audacious Ideas blog by Dan Morhaim, emergency medicine physician and state delegate from Baltimore County, on the failed war on drugs. Go read it.

Jammed prisons, AIDS, destroyed families, crime victims, terrorist funding: the toll is immense. Addiction treatment is a critical step but just a beginning. Isn’t it time our society had a full, open, honest, and intense discussion about drugs? Shouldn’t we admit that the War on Drugs has failed and that other policies deserve exploration?

The answer, of course, is hell yes. Carefully controlled legalization of heroin and cocaine would improve society from Baltimore to Mexico to Colombia to Afghanistan. It's a radical move, but it can't be any worse than what we have now. Just do it.

Posted by Jay Hancock at 6:39 AM | Permalink | Comments (5)
Categories: War on Drugs
        

Tackle Michael Oher and running back Ray Rice will be signing autographs at the "Keep It Made In America" meeting at M&T Stadium tonight. Other luminaries include Aris Melissaratos of Johns Hopkins, Mike Galiazzo of the Regional Manufacturing Institute, United Steelworkers 9477 President John Cirri and Severstal Sparrows President Thomas Russo.

The meeting is sponsored by the Alliance for American Manufacturing, a joint Steelworkers-industry venture that pushes U.S. policymakers to hold importing countries and industries accountable for currency manipulation, environmental despoilation, poor labor conditions and so forth. According to the press release they'll ask/answer questions such as "How do we bring good clean energy manufacturing jobs to Maryland? How can rebuild our manufacturing base? What changes do we need to [make] to tax and trade policies?"

There'll be an autograph session with Oher and Rice, "who will be signing limited edition 'Keep It Made In America' souvenir photos."

6 p.m. in the stadium's club level. Free admission. Free parking. Open to the public.

Posted by Jay Hancock at 6:49 AM | Permalink | Comments (3)
Categories: Manufacturing
        

Gresham's Law, in monetary studies, is the tendency of bad money to drive out good. When potentates start debasing their currencies, people hoard the coins with high precious-metal content and spend the bad stuff. Coins laced with lead and copper take over the money supply.

There is a similar dynamic going on in media. As platforms proliferate, crap news is driving out legitimate news. It started when Time magazine started its "People" section. It expanded when Time turned "People" into a whole magazine. It expanded again with reality TV, Gawker, Kate Gosselin etc. Now it has reached a new high. Today's New York Times -- the sober newspaper of record, the Gray Lady! -- has published this headline and subhed on its home page:

Is Doomsday Coming? Perhaps, but Not in 2012 Scientists say not to worry about predictions based on the Mayan calendar that the world will end soon.

On the contrary. This seems to be a powerful sign that the world is indeed ending.

Posted by Jay Hancock at 12:21 PM | Permalink | Comments (3)
Categories: Media
        

The Great Recession has given currency to the ancient legal term "cease and desist," as bank after bank gets smacked with an order from government regulators to shape up or else. Baltimore's 1st Mariner Bank got a "cease" letter a couple months ago, basically giving it until June to get more capital or risk being seized.

Now, reports American Banker and relayed by Calculated Risk, the Federal Deposit Insurance Corp. is trashing "cease and desist" and replacing it with "consent order," a term AB says is used by other regulators.

We're getting a little Orwellian here. Most cease and desist orders were already "consent" orders in the sense that banks had to stipulate (not contest) the facts as found by the FDIC or challenge them at a hearing. In both cases the bank is consenting only because government heavies are giving it the fifth degree.

But consent sounds so much nicer than the categorical C&D, don't you think? Cease and desist is the FDIC in crouch position, service revolver drawn. "Back away from the subprime mortgages!" Consent makes it sound like the FDIC and the banks are friends!

Posted by Jay Hancock at 9:03 AM | Permalink | Comments (0)
Categories: The Great Recession
        

The Cordish Co., Simon Property and others are having a jobs and vendor fair Thursday for people who want to do business with Power Plant Entertainment, Casino Resorts Maryland. It's at Arundel Mills Mall, near the putative slots site. Problem: The county hasn't approved the project. The developers don't have a casino license.

Perhaps it's their attempt to push the process and show how much local dough will be spent and jobs created locally if the project goes forward. But the county councilmembers -- doing their best Hamlet, brows furrowed, hands wringing -- are unlikely to be impressed. They may be annoyed.

I asked Cordish spokeswoman Danielle Babcock whether the job fair might be premature, given the lack of approval by the county. She replied: "We expect approvals. We have received hundreds of calls from job seekers and potential vendors about the project. This is a Career & Vendor Information Expo to prepare local contractors, vendors and career candidates for the estimated 4,000 jobs anticipated."

Says the press release from Cordish et. al.:

(Baltimore, MD) – PPE Casino Resorts Maryland, LLC (“PPE MD”) announced its plans today to host a Career & Vendor Information Expo at Arundel Mills Mall in an effort to prepare local contractors, vendors and career candidates for the estimated 2,500 construction and 1,500 permanent jobs anticipated with the development of a world-class gaming facility at Arundel Mills Mall. The Expo will be held on Thursday, November 19, 2009 from 11am – 2pm in the Arundel Mills Mall food court.

Continue reading "Arundel casino developers: We're hiring, buying!" »

Posted by Jay Hancock at 6:33 AM | Permalink | Comments (13)
Categories: Slots
        

Cute stuff from EJSKanye8585, the Dow Jones, the Great Recession and the Clash.

Posted by Jay Hancock at 1:12 PM | Permalink | Comments (1)
        

a public option open to everyone (allow states to opt out of this if they dare), Medicare-negotiated drug benefits, no 12-year monopoly for new drugs, and a major squeeze on Medicare reimbursements for doctors -- and have CBO score the savings. I guarantee you, the number will be large.

A public option available to everyone -- not just people who lack insurance -- really would stop costs from rising so quickly. Letting Medicare negotiate lower drug prices would also save money, but probably not as much as Reich thinks. "A major squeeze on Medicare reimbursements for doctors" could have terrible consequences if the targets were primarily general practitioners, who are already getting hammered. The target needs to be specialists -- surgeons, neurologists etc. -- and not just on their fees per procedure (see below).

Reducing patent protections for new drugs is a terrible, terrible idea. Dollar, for dollar, pharmaceuticals are among the best medical investments going. Telling the biotech companies they'll

Continue reading "Warning sign: Reich says health bills too costly" »

Posted by Jay Hancock at 6:51 AM | Permalink | Comments (4)
Categories: Health Care
        

The jobs discussion board on Baltimore Craigslist is having a few spam issues.

Posted by Jay Hancock at 9:36 PM | Permalink | Comments (1)
        

Excellent story by NYT's Robert Pear. Statements by more than a dozen members of congress weren't their own but were written wholly or partly by lobbyists for Genentech, the biopharm company owned by Roche. The statements were put in the Congressional Record, the official archive of the proceedings of Congress.

Pear queried Gententech for a response:

Asked about the Congressional statements, a lobbyist close to Genentech said: “This happens all the time. There was nothing nefarious about it.”

Well, he's half right. It probably does happen all the time. Why is it a scandal when a politician plagiarizes an author or another politician in a campaign speech but not when a multinational corporation programs more than a dozen Chatty Cathy lawmakers and pulls the string?

Posted by Jay Hancock at 5:03 PM | Permalink | Comments (3)
Categories: Health Care
        

You can read all the posts on Erickson's bankruptcy by clicking here.

Bankruptcy Judge Stacey Jernigan will hear arguments at 9:30 a.m. next Wednesday on Erickson Retirement's plan to increase protections for resident's entrance fees, which the company calls "initial entrance deposits." It basically amounts to a money-back guarantee if you buy an Erickson unit and want to move out later or if the community has financial troubles or goes out of business. Current practice is, you get your money back after the community sells your unit to somebody else.

If I were about to sign for an Erickson unit, I would wait until next week to see if the judge approves the new protections and then ask for the new deal. Below is Erickson's argument. IED is initial entrance deposit. CCRC is continuing care retirement community.

Allowing the residents to have a free look at whether or not the CCRCs are operating effectively while these cases are pending should drastically increase the willingness of potential residents to pay an IED... Equally important to a residents’ peace of mind is the knowledge that should their CCRC close, their IED would be promptly refunded to such resident. Should a Closure Event happen, it is imperative that the residents have access to the IEDs paid upon their residency of the CCRC.

UPDATE: Jon Chesto at the Patriot Ledger in Quincy, reporting on Erickson's Linden Ponds property in Hingham, reports that the new protections would not apply to all Erickson communities.

Mary Helen Lorenz, chairwoman of the Linden Ponds board, said the escrow protections being considered in bankruptcy court would only apply to communities where Erickson landowner subsidiaries filed for bankruptcy along with their parent company. Because the Hingham Campus hasn’t filed for bankruptcy, the deposit refunds at Linden Ponds would continue to be governed by the terms spelled out in the residency contracts.

Posted by Jay Hancock at 3:16 PM | Permalink | Comments (1)
Categories: Erickson Bankruptcy
        

Overthinking It identifies the smoking gun in the declining quality of rock music. As you can see from his chart below, the number of songs making Rolling Stone's Top 500 Greatest Songs of all time falls off sharply right after American crude oil output begins declining in the 1960s. Coincidence?? That's what you naive zombies always say. You can't handle the truth.

Barry Ritholtz uses the chart to teach an elementary statistics lesson.

Posted by Jay Hancock at 2:20 PM | Permalink | Comments (1)