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A Great(er) Depression: The end of cheap food, energy and credit

foodration.jpg

See those people there? It's a line for food rationing distributed by the United Nations World Food Programme in Nairobi.

The reason why I bring this up on a beautiful Friday morning is because reader PastorTim said something yesterday that depressed the heck out of me. On my post about rice rationing by Sam's Clubs because of concerns about shortages, he commented that:

This is only the start of food rations in the USA. We need to wake up to the times we are living in. We're in a Greater Depression.

As I keep telling you, I'm a worrier. So when I saw the Sam's Club story and read about retailers limiting consumer purchases of flour, rice and cooking oil, it made me worry. C'mon. I've been worried for awhile now... about the availability of wheat and now rice, rising food prices, rising gas prices, rising debt levels and of course, the mortgage crisis as documented by my terrific colleague Jamie and her Real Estate Wonk blog. 

Somehow through all that worrying, though, I managed to stay slightly optimistic that we'd turn it all around soon. Now, I'm not so sure. PastorTim has sent me into a tailspin.

Will things get way worse before they get better? Are we in a Greater Depression? Is this just the start of food rations in the U.S.? My family is not entirely unfamiliar with food rationing. When we left Vietnam in 1975 and lived in a refugee processing camp in Guam for six months, my family stood in line to get our share of food like soggy bacon, chicken soup (one small cup a person), and some mystery meat and potatoes concoction for breakfast that my Mama says she will never ever eat again.

Are we really heading in that direction? Is PastorTim seeing into our near future or is he just one of those crazyguys on the street walking around with a board that says the World is Ending? Is it really time to start stockpiling food? 

(Photo Simon Maina/AFP/Getty Images)

Comments

How would things be getting better? What be the cause of improvement? A new president? 8 months away and things won't change on (the infamous) Day 1. I truly fear that the next year will be a horror of epic proportions.

DD: Eve, You're right. I wasn't basing my little bit of optimism on any particular event taking place. It was more just wishful thinking.

I'm trying to imagine in my mind this scenario where everyone in the US is transformed into dustbowl-era strawpeople who have to eat boot leather and rat stew, but I just don't see it happening.

But put it this way: as a nation we have been fatter, lazier, and more bloated (figuratively and literally) than any other for the past two or so generations, and the most prosperous. Our government and our consumers consistently live in a state of myopia - only thinking short term, only about themselves, and now everyone is paying the price.

So while my impotent rage at those voracious consumers of everything might fill me for now, I know that if I have to I'm adaptable enough to make it in the long run.

If for a time everyone is pushed into a situation where they actually have to band together and actually support one another, and god forbid go without cable television or that super sweet Hummer, well what can I say, it'll be interesting.

But all bitterness aside, if there's one thing the US seems to be pretty good at, it's pulling back from the brink of disaster. I'd say don't worry, but be ...watchful.

DD: Thanks, Evan. A message of hope and a word in favor of U.S. fortittude. I needed that.

The sky is falling! The sky is falling! Maybe I should start building the bunker in my backyard or move to a compound in the mountains. It is over reaction like this that people feed into. Things are tough but it's not as bad as people would like to think.

DD: Oooh. I've ALWAYS wanted a bunker after I visited Churchill's in London. It was cool.

With the way the dollar is losing its value, the mortgage crisis that will just get worse and worse, the price of food set to skyrocket, not to mention oil prices and heating/cooling bills going up, I feel the same way. Yes, the sky is falling.

Cmon, people HONESTLY believe there's going to be widespread food rationing in the US?!?! We're talking about only rice that's being rationed, and it's ONLY being rationed at the Wholesale clubs that sell it in the huge 20 pound bags. PLUS the Wholesale Clubs are STILL allowing people to purchase four 20 pound bags! I hardly consider that a cause for alarm. Let's try and relax people. It's not like Giant and Safeway are rationing the tiny boxes of Rice-A-Roni here.

There is no shortage of anything on planet earth. Earth is a big ball of resources which are easy to get at with human technology.

The history of the last two hundred years is constantly raising living standards, lower cost, more options etc.

We have an organizational problem which allows economic bubbles to form which distort markets and destroy trust.

There is no reason 10 Billion or even 100 Billion people could not live comfortably on Earth. Technology will very soon make the entire universe accessible and humans will settle on other planets, build completely artificial habitats in space and travel to other stars.

Lets figure out how the Housing bubble was allowed to form and stop the commodities bubble. Get on with bringing 3rd world into mainstream economy.

I am not allowed to flush toxic waste down the drain. Why is Wall Street allowed to issue toxic financial instruments? The same concept.

Civilization = organization and rule of law --- Wall Street can not be allowed to make its own rules.

I think you raise some valid questions but PastorTim is being a tad bit dramatic.

"Food rations" is a bit of a dramatic term for buyer limits being placed on bulk purchases at warehouse clubs. Clearly, people are buying much more and at a higher rate than they can consume probably as a reaction to what is happening in the developing world. Eventually, this localized demand will subside because it is difficult to sustain a high level of demand based on panic buying. It is rather absurd to think the U.S. is headed towards a "food crisis" because one is limited to 4 50lb bags of rice at Sam's Club or Costco. It is a food crisis when your food rations do not keep up with your overall daily needs -- not for your desire to stockpile.

If you recall, we had similar events in the 1970s...gas lines, limits on flour and sugar at supermarkets, etc. It eventually subsided but it was painful for many at the time.

Clearly, there is a food crisis in the developing world. Sadly, I don't think this will subside anytime soon. Global demand for western style food (baked goods, wheat based products, poultry, etc) is growing in demand, especially in China and India. This will put pressure on prices on many products here but I doubt it will lead to "food rations" as we know them in the developing world.

Now PastorTim is right that much of the developing world is in a greater depression -- many of these countries have seen these conditions for generations. Meanwhile, people in the U.S. and the developed world waste food on a daily basis without blinking an eye.

In the age of the internet, chatrooms, and bulletin boards, fear mongers have been given an elevated voice.

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A native of Vietnam, Dan Thanh Dang has lived in Maryland most of her life and has been a Baltimore Sun reporter since 1990. She's written about everything from mayoral elections and murder to energy prices and online dating. These days, she writes about a topic she's all too familiar with, spending money -- how to save more of it, blow all of it, use it wisely and avoid getting ripped off in the process.
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