iPhone market share growing despite threat of BlackBerry Storm
Demand for Apple’s iPhone 3G rose rapidly over the past year and should remain steady heading into 2009, according to a survey by Rockville, Md.-based ChangeWave Research.
The survey of 3,803 ChangeWave “alliance members” was conducted Dec. 9-15 and looks at trends in the smart phone market, particularly regarding the iPhone and Research in Motion’s BlackBerry Storm. Launched in November, the Storm is RIM’s first touchscreen smart phone.
So far it doesn’t look like the Storm has harmed iPhone sales in any significant way.
The current market share chart (based on which phone respondents currently own) shows the iPhone climbing from 6 percent in January to 23 percent in December. And that’s up from 17 percent in the September survey.
Meanwhile the BlackBerry has been rock-steady. Its share in January was 43 percent; in December, 41 percent, down 1 point from September.
My take on the ChangeWave data is that Apple and RIM aren’t so much cannibalizing each other as driving all the other smart phone players to the margins.
Look at Palm. In January 2008 it still had 18 percent of the smart phone market. By December it was down to 9 percent. In January 2007 (when the original iPhone was announced) Palm had 30 percent.
Motorola slid from 7 percent in January to 4 percent in December. Few cell phone makers have not surrendered share to the Apple/RIM duopoly.
I found more evidence elsewhere in the ChangeWave report. Current Apple customers were least likely to switch to RIM – only 6 percent said they were “likely” or “somewhat likely” to buy a Storm compared to 21 percent of Palm owners, 17 percent of Motorola owners and 16 percent of Samsung owners.
Of current Storm owners 31 percent already were BlackBerry users, but 29 percent switched from a Palm Treo and 21 percent from a Motorola phone. The iPhone did not appear in that data.
In a similar question directed to current iPhone owners, just 8 percent switched from a BlackBerry to the iPhone. But 34 percent said their previous phone was a Motorola; 13 percent Nokia; 11 percent Samsung; and 10 percent Palm.
However, among those planning to buy a smart phone in the next 90 days, RIM has the edge over Apple. The BlackBerry rose from 30 percent to 39 percent, while the iPhone fell from 34 percent to 30 percent.
ChangeWave attributed the reversal to waning enthusiasm for the iPhone 3G, which went on sale back in July, while RIM currently is engaged in a series of flashy product launches with the Storm, the Bold and the Pearl Flip.
Of course, this chart tends to be more volatile than the market share chart; the iPhone 3G launch caused Apple’s number in the June survey to spike to 56 percent!
Though RIM’s products no doubt will prove popular in 2009, Apple has one clear trump card going forward: its customer satisfaction numbers remain much higher than those of its smart phone competitors.
Apple leads with 72 percent of customers reporting they are “very satisfied;” RIM is a remote second at 52 percent. Palm’s 24 percent hints at why its share has plummeted.
The Storm itself had some rocky reviews in the tech press, with many criticizing its un-BlackBerry lack of a physical keyboard and slow, quirky touch screen interface. Though many problems were fixed with a firmware update, the issues created a negative impression from which the Storm has not yet recovered.
The inclusion of a touch screen appealed to 49 percent of Storm owners in the ChangeWave survey, though 21 percent bemoaned the absent physical keyboard and 20 percent disliked the touch screen interface. Another 20 percent knocked the Storm as “difficult to use.”
Alas, the Storm would seem an improbable “iPhone killer.”
Other tidbits gleaned from the ChangeWave survey:
What bad economy? The percentage of respondents who said they planned to buy a smart phone of any kind in the next 90 days was actually up 0.3 percent from the September survey. In the current nightmarish economic climate, that’s amazing.
OS X vs. Windows Mobile RIM dominated in operating system market share among current smart phone owners, echoing its share in the hardware chart with 40 percent. Apple’s Mac OS X came in second with 22 percent, with Windows Mobile close behind at 20 percent.
But when asked which OS they’d prefer to have on their next smart phone, RIM’s lead over Apple shrunk to 10 points (32 percent to 22 percent). And only 11 percent wanted to see Windows Mobile on their next phone. (Google’s Android, available since late October, managed 4 percent.)
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Comments
You guys in the US are ages behind the rest of the advance markets around the world. Same goes for the auto industry. Why don't you guys jump on the band wagon from Nokia because that's the company that makes real smart phones, not this berry-palm-osx crap.. they are useless just like GM cars!
Posted by: LOGO | December 23, 2008 10:31 AM
The results are inaccurate, since Apple has only 2 products on the market, and the Blackberry's Storm satisfaction isn't taken into consideration. There is a spike in december for RIM due to the storm. Cell Phone Satisfaction by Brand and not model is a bias graph.
Posted by: Tony | December 23, 2008 12:17 PM
Hearing this come from an Apple guy makes me think this must sting a bit. I own the Storm and it has proven to be my favorite Blackberry. I look forward to the iPhone-Storm competition. It will only make both devices better, which in turn is great for us. Nice article.
Posted by: Jeremy | December 23, 2008 12:36 PM
What is clear from the current market share chart is that the real growth (i.e., growth beyond that of the general smartphone market) has moved from Blackberry to iPhone. Before iPhone, Blackberry grew from 30% to 43% of the smartphone market; after iPhone, Blackberry has not outgrown the smartphone market. Rather, iPhone has gone from 0% to 23% of the smartphone market.
Posted by: mark | December 23, 2008 1:24 PM
If you Nokia phones are "advanced," bwhahaha, the NGAGE & their giant brick web phones - yea, nice try. They are at least two generations behind and hey, Europeans & Asians have been sold a bill of goods that Nokia is the "best," well compared to palm, Moto & Samsung - sure ...
Posted by: jbelkin | December 23, 2008 3:30 PM
The iPhone has a great out-of-box experience, but it isn't very capable. And Apple tries to control everything on the iPhone and drive business their way, which severely limits its usefulness. I think many iPhone users like it so much because they have never used anything else.
I hope the iPhone will force companies like Nokia to pay more attention to ease of use and ease of software installations.
Posted by: Mike Jones | December 23, 2008 4:19 PM
Mike said:"I think many iPhone users like it so much because they have never used anything else."
WTF ?????
So, 7 million dont have a phone before the Iphone ?
Stupid...
Posted by: shenmue | December 23, 2008 5:09 PM
iPhone isn't very capable? I am actually doing everything and more on my iPhone than I did on my Treo 650. And, the iPhone has a larger screen, but smaller form factor with more storage. I'm an MD that uses many medical apps. With Documents to Go coming to iPhone soon, there is even more utility, although many apps will store and display numerous file types, including ALL Office docs, as well as movies and music.
Posted by: Bill | December 23, 2008 8:28 PM
OK, let me understand this...one phone (2G and 3G combined) has 23% of the smartphone market!!!! what more evidence do you need people?
you say alot of what the iPhone is not, but 23% of the smartphone market like it...Apple must be doing something right.
Posted by: manny | December 24, 2008 1:41 AM
Here's the way I look at the BB Storm vs. the iPhone:
Windows 3.1 vs. Mac OS X
Flawed vs. Seamless
Clunky vs. Beautiful
I tried a BB Storm at Verizon last weekend and the above pretty much sums it up.
Posted by: lrd | December 24, 2008 8:41 AM
Who really gives a s**t about this analytical stuff other than analysts! People like their Blackberries, people like their iPhones; people like their Hondas, people like their Hummers (why??); people like their Big Macs, people like their Subs etc etc etc. People's loyalty to a particular brand is made and changed on personal preferences/biases/usage.....I doubt that this drivel has any affect whatsoever other than keeping an analyst employed?
Posted by: graham | December 24, 2008 9:13 AM
The iPhone people forget that the device is supposed to actually work...well, like a phone. I know 3 people with the iPhone and they say the network is spotty at best. They also can't tether, no removable battery and no video.
If iPhone would have been on Verizon, I would have jumped on it months ago, but someone dropped the ball.
I just got a Storm and it's my first smartphone. I Love it. I've read all of the reviews good/bad for the past 3 months and I haven't seen any of the negative things that people talked about. The phone is pretty sweet! It bluetoothed with my car's (MINI Cooper) system flawlessly.
I will be curious to see if the BB Storm overtakes iPhone in April 2009 when the original 2 year contracts are up.
Posted by: F. Thornton | December 24, 2008 9:14 AM
Nokia and RIM make good phones, of
course. But the Apple iPhone is a game
changer. Actually, OS X is the game
changer. And it goes back to NeXT.
Sure, many people haven't figured it out
yet, and are still happy with Windows
and Nokia and RIM. But the tide is
turning. Gates was smart enough to
get out, while the getting was good.
There's a steamroller bearing down on
the electronics market. It's called OS X.
Sunny Guy
Posted by: SunnyGuy | December 24, 2008 9:44 AM
"I hope the iPhone will force companies like Nokia to pay more attention to ease of use and ease of software installations."
Nokia phones usually come lot of goodies already. last time i checked iphone didnt have mms..adobe flash...cant record video..and the list goes on.
Posted by: travis | December 24, 2008 4:38 PM
I have to agree with the comment about Nokia. S60 is the most popular worldwide smart phone operating system. It can near enough do anything OSx can, in addition it can open MS office files. Flash works on the phone and you can download software (although its not as easy as apple has made it). The Symbian S60 is very competent, very successful and therefore should not be ignored. Nokia phones are therefore not 2 gens behind. I have one with wi-fi and FM transmitter build in. Although it is bigger than i would like but still impressed.
I have to say Moto have not made a decent phone is years. I cant believe they are the most popular consumer phone company in the US.
I don't know anyone with a RIM, but i know plenty of people with the iphone. Im waiting for the next version of the iphone myself.... actually waiting for my contract to end.
Posted by: Dan Brown | December 24, 2008 8:03 PM
Seriously, from your comments, it appears many of you haven't really used an iPhone on a day to day basis. Instead of offering another biased comment (I'm trying here), allow me to just present a few 'facts.'
1. iPhone is the new kid in the block. Just barely year and half old on the market. What that means, many current iPhone users have likely been exposed to other phones already and still are impressed by what the iPhone brought in. For example, I've had couple of cheap Nokias (free w/ subscription models), a decent Samsung, and a terrible Blackberry 7100-t (yes from T-Mobile) since 2000. Blackberry data handling was so poor that I reluctantly had to cancel the data service from T-Mobile. It was simply a useless service, and I didn't want to pay $20 just so I can get instant emails. On the other hand, take the iPhone out for an internet spin, seriously. Something as subtly profound as the gesture based Safari browsing the full internet (sans Java and Flash-based ad craps) to something as silly as youtube in your bed. Some ascribes it as, "it just works." To me, the experience is that it not just works, it rocks. Literally too. If you are not as much into listening to podcastings in your commutes, or rating your Stones' songs, then just try out the App Store and the education section. No seriously, before you babble on how great your Nokias and BlackBerries are, try the App store and experience what makes iPhone a platform. Like one of the previous comments suggested, it's OSX. BB etc. don't yet have a desktop grade OS on their phones. Heck even MS doesn't have one to offer, yet.
2. As has been reported, numerous times already, BB breaks twice as likely as iPhone. Reported on CNET on Nov 10: "BlackBerry has twice failure rate of iPhone" http://news.cnet.com/8301-1035_3-10092377-94.html
3. Also, and maybe a no surprise, from ComputerWorld Dec 23rd news: "iPhone trounces BlackBerry Storm in satisfaction rating" http://www.computerworld.com/action/article.do?command=viewArticleBasic&articleId=9124278&intsrc=news_ts_head
4. You want MMS and Flash, I don't. I turn off Flash on my desktop browsers. I do fine without them. I never used MMS before nor do I care to. But what difference does it matter for features. There are many features that iPhones have that many of the competition lacks. Wi-Fi on the BB Storm is glaring example of that. You get what you want, but presenting a laundry list of features (like every Nokia N series) that really don't offer any fluidity result mostly in half-baked checked off lists.
5. Finally. I love my iPhone. A personal preference maybe. But fact remains, there are 14 Millions of us in less than a year and half and growing. Overwhelming number of us appear to appreciate the device more everyday. I think instead of reading up on the blogs etc. just go ahead and spend an evening or two with the device and see if it can 'grow' on you. After that, you can trash the phone all you want. You just earned it.
Posted by: krquet | December 25, 2008 1:03 PM
The Storm is not as good as the iPhone. The iPhone wins this war, hands down. I have owned both, and the iPhone far outshines all competition with the Storm. My advice - play around with both and see for yourself. I was always a Blackberry user, and I love Blackberry. But they really dropped the ball with the Storm.
Posted by: John | December 26, 2008 3:39 PM
I have had the iPhone and currently the use the BB Storm. The Storm is a decent phone, but still lacking. The iPhone offers a phenomenal user interface that is easy and intuitive. The Storm is more complicated and quirky. I am not an iPhone user for one reason...AT&T. Verizon service in the Mpls-St. Paul area is just better. I look forward to continuing improvements in the Storm software and the possibility that the iPhone will become available on Verizon's network.
Posted by: Paul S | December 28, 2008 3:30 PM
Blackberry Storm has a few more firmware improvements to go. The 0.75 update greatly enhanced the phone fixing porblems. However, more are expected and soon. Iphone went thru the same process. The Storm does a lot more than the Iphone and although it is limited with downloads right not it will soon have its own app center. I am surprised the Iphone does not take video. RIM needs to get on the stick and fix some more reported issues : bluetooth sync/ speed of the phone switching back and forth screens/apps. The keyboard takes some getting use to, but once mastered it is a sweet performer. And I am talking landscape. I do both portrait and landscape and prefer landscape. My fingers are big and still I have adapted to increase speeds. Still miss the keyboard, but unwilling to go to the Bold because of the provider... att.
Posted by: Rick White | December 29, 2008 12:12 PM
I am extremely biased here as I own a 3G, but Apple will now enjoy the "Halo-Effect" courtesy of my wallet. I am so satisfied - nay, overjoyed - with my iPhone, that I am soon to purchase an iMac.
I use the iPhone for everything: email, text, web-surfing, and other, secret stuff! The Blackberry of any model couldn't hope to entice me.
ONLY thing I'm unhappy with is no true SMS capabilities.
Lastly, I don't care what else is out there...
Posted by: Elton Alwine | January 12, 2009 6:00 PM