A financial blogger gets it: Apple stock is cheap
Astute analysis of Apple Inc. among mainstream financial blogs is absurdly difficult to find.
Many bloggers and analysts alike recently have concluded AAPL is a "sell" based primarily on it being a consumer technology company, and as such vulnerable to the evaporation of consumer spending we’re likely to see in the coming months.
A few weeks ago I gave some reasons why Apple should get through the looming economic turmoil better than most companies, particularly competing consumer technology companies.
But yesterday I read a remarkable analysis by Andy Zaky on the financial news Web site Seeking Alpha. Zaky’s article also appeared on his own financial blog, Bullish Cross.
In a piece called “Is Apple More Undervalued than Other Tech Sector Stocks,” Zaky compares Apple’s price-to-cash ratio with that of other tech stocks. (From Investopedia: “Price to cash flow ratio -- a measure of the market's expectations of a firm's future financial health.”)
Apple has the lowest price-to-cash ratio of all the major tech companies, despite stronger fundamentals. The lower the number, the more negative investor sentiment.
To illustrate how irrationally low AAPL has fallen, Zaky says if Google were trading at Apple’s current price-to-cash ratio, its price would be $173.84. Google closed at $359.69 yesterday.
Though AAPL has recovered to $111.04 (as of yesterday’s close) from its lows of just below $90, it remains greatly undervalued.
Zaky argues that as of now “the market has already priced in a complete destruction of Apple’s business,” an unlikely turn of events. He also has a lot of well-argued criticism of analyst projections for Apple’s 2009 earnings.
As a long-time follower of Apple, I often have puzzled over the appalling inability of so many so-called “professionals” to grasp the winning strategies and vast profit-generating potential of Apple’s various business arms.
They fuss over gross margins, agonize over the cost of components and overestimate the impact of Apple’s competitors. What they forget to factor in is the power of the Apple brand as well as the value of building superbly designed and engineered products.
It’s not that hard to figure out, people.
Zaky’s article is a highly detailed, well-researched piece of analysis. I recommend it.



Comments
So then why is Google valued way higher than Apple if Apple is such a screaming buy? Maybe because it's value is easier to see instead of being hidden in some fine print on an earnings report. Google will go back up to $600 a share while Apple stays at $150. That is the inevitability of the situation, irrational or not.
Posted by: Constable Odo | October 31, 2008 3:54 PM
@Constable Odo
Nothing to do with Apple, it is just that it is the vulture funds' favorite short cash cow. When you have analysts like huberty and toni you don't need enemies.
BTW when and if they ride out this storm Apple wouldn't be $150 but $300 let's see.
Posted by: AdamC | November 1, 2008 2:54 AM