Jitters over Steve Jobs’ health understandable
When several Apple bloggers called attention to Steve Jobs’ gaunt appearance at last Monday’s WWDC keynote, we were reminded of a fact few wish to face: Steve Jobs will not head Apple forever.
Some speculated Jobs could be suffering a relapse of the pancreatic cancer for which he had surgery in 2004. An Apple spokeswoman gave The Wall Street Journal the explanation that Jobs merely had a “common bug” and was taking antibiotics.
The story percolated on Apple-related blogs as well as financial blogs, contributing to a 7 percent drop in AAPL. (The stock fell $4.03 the day of the keynote but closed at $185.64 on Tuesday. From there it slid $13.27 to close at $172.37 on Friday. Analyst excitement this week over prospects for the 3G iPhone has pushed AAPL back to the $180 range.)
The severe reaction – both from the Apple faithful and Wall Street – illustrates how vital Steve Jobs is to the ongoing success of Apple Inc.
He is arguably the most celebrated CEO in America. Because of his “rock star” persona, his legendary ability to elicit great products from those who serve under him and his skill at manipulating the media, Jobs is as much a celebrity as a businessman.
Detractors may deride Jobs as an egotistical tyrant unworthy of the accolades but one need only look at Apple’s history to see the man’s impact on the company. Over its 32-year existence, only the years Jobs was absent – 1985 to 1997 -- did Apple struggle.
So every time even a whiff of a hint arises that something might force Jobs out of his CEO post, both Apple fans and stockholders alike break out the worry beads.
The last time this happened, it wasn’t Jobs’ health but his role in a stock backdating scandal that had people contemplating a Jobs-less Apple. Concern over that incident buffeted AAPL stock for months.
Like most fans of Apple, I’m also a fan of Steve Jobs and all he has achieved. I pray he just lost a few pounds fighting a cold in recent weeks.
But the reality is someday he will leave Apple, whether it’s for health reasons or some other unforeseeable event. What then?
At first not much would change, apart from the stock plummeting. A new CEO would be named from a list of potential successors.
Apple would continue selling cool products. High-ranking Apple execs like Senior Vice President for Industrial Design Jonathan Ive and Senior Vice President for Worldwide Product Marketing Phil Schiller would do their best to keep Apple’s winning streak alive.
But as time goes on, Apple will falter without Steve Jobs. No successor could have Jobs’ unique combination of charisma, steel will, exceptional vision and instinct for knowing which products to shun and which to pursue.
Without Steve at the helm to reject mediocrity while imposing his will on both employees and business partners, Apple will backslide from an extraordinary company to an ordinary one.
Hit products will come less regularly. The media won’t hang on every announcement. Apple won’t be special.
Contrast that to the situation at Microsoft. Bill Gates will retire June 27 from the company he founded after having ceded control to Steve Ballmer in 2000. As much as Gates has meant to Microsoft, his long goodbye means his departure won’t devastate the company.
Jobs’ controlling personality never would permit a gradual transition of power. Can anyone imagine Jobs submitting to the authority of a successor as he makes a slow and graceful exit?
No, when Jobs leaves Apple – whatever the cause -- it will be sudden and traumatic. I dread that day and hope it doesn’t come for a very, very long time.
in AAPL stock news
| Permalink
| Comments (9)
Comments
I do not think Apple will falter without Steve. Walt Disney never saw his Orlando empire's birth or it's increasing rise to the 'world' it has become. Those that understood Walt's vision and mission fulfilled it and took it beyond. The same will happen one day at Apple. I know many of us fear a repeat of the Spindler and Gil years, but Steve has his plan forever etched into Apple's future. Apple will continue to prosper and innovate while the rest of the world only copies what they do.
Posted by: Jeff Henson | June 17, 2008 1:29 PM
Jeff Henson: Actually, Walt Disney left his company completely unprepared for his absence. The company drifted for almost twenty years, sliding into increasing irrelevance during the 1970s and early 80s. Yes, the theme parks continued to prosper; but the movie studio was weak, and observers claimed the innovation was gone. The company was under attack from greenmailers and takeover artists. It wasn't until Roy E. Disney (Walt's nephew) came to the rescue and brought in Michael Eisner and Frank Wells in 1984 -- 18 years after Walt's death -- that the company finally began its second Golden Era, which continues today under CEO Bob Iger.
It's not too hard to imagine Apple following a similar fate if Steve doesn't establish a strong succession plan.
Posted by: Adam | June 17, 2008 4:52 PM
I don't care to engage in premature handicapping of Steve Jobs' successor, but if I did, my money would be on Scott Forrestal. Scott seems to embody the Apple ethos and culture more completely than any of the other public execs. And, like you, I do not wish to see any successor named for a very, very long time indeed.
Posted by: Peter Weisz | June 17, 2008 5:41 PM
Disney might not have been prepared for the passing of its founder, but Apple is certainly aware of the old news that Steve Jobs is not a bulletproof immortal. It has already discussed the fact that it has successors in place, most likely COO Tim Cook.
Do you really think sales will fall off if Jobs leaves the company? Jobs' specific contributions to Apple have been to turn it around and establish it a new trajectory. Jobs also negotiated deals to merge Apple into the media industry. He is not impossible to replace were he to decide to retire, and there's no reason to fan the flames of fear that Apple would lose value as an enterprise after it replaces Jobs with another CEO. This is not 1986 or 1994. Jobs turned Apple into strong company. It's not a cult reliant upon his presence.
Posted by: Daniel Eran Dilger | June 17, 2008 6:26 PM
As long as you have people like Jim Cramer around, he'll tell you with absolute certainty that Apple will fail without Steve Jobs. He knows nothing about the company as to whether they've already set a roadmap of products. All I know is that I don't want to get sick and people start telling me I'm ready to die. I think that's best left to doctors instead of stock speculators. I really don't understand how a company with great products and high sales will just collapse overnight. In a way you're saying that Apple the company is not really worth much at all. Throw out all the numbers. Only Steve Jobs is holding Apple together. If Steve decides to skip an event, that will be enough to take the share price down. Why? What a sad state of affairs. If this is true, I guess I never saw it coming.
Posted by: Constable Odo | June 17, 2008 6:46 PM
Your full of crap and naive. The following links sum up what you are lacking.
http://apple20.blogs.fortune.cnn.com/2008/06/13/steve-jobs-life-after-the-whipple/
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Jonathan_Ive
Also your story isn't "news" anymore. You're late to the party
Posted by: xyz | June 17, 2008 7:13 PM
How could any ethical person write about the future of a company, a person they know little about or that persons health which they know little about. This is a short basher induced article in my opinion. I don't know anyone who can see the future except this writer. This writer is looking for attention writing about rumors, old rumors and news, with no facts.
Posted by: mrtaxx | June 17, 2008 7:25 PM
mrtaxx wrote: "How could any ethical person write about the future of a company, a person they know little about or that persons health which they know little about. This is a short basher induced article in my opinion."
Mine too. This is part of an internet-wide campaign by all the Microsoft controlled computer/tech sites to discredit Apple before the arrival of the new iPhone.
Posted by: zato | June 18, 2008 4:12 AM
I was at WWDC 08 and stood next to Steve after the keynote while he was talking to the press and I have to say he looked much better in person. I too pray that Steve is ok, my worry beads are in full use. Nice article.
Posted by: Ernie Svehla | June 26, 2008 9:34 PM