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Apple exec sees “enormous opportunity” for iPod, iPhone and the Mac

Not only are Apple’s three primary businesses each doing extremely well, but each retains significant potential for growth, Tim Cook, the Cupertino company’s chief operating officer said yesterday.

In a wide-ranging question-and-answer session at the Goldman Sachs Investment Symposium in Las Vegas, Cook fielded queries about “missing” iPhones, the possibility that the iPod market has become “saturated,” why the Mac’s market share has seen explosive growth and what Apple hopes to achieve with the Apple TV.

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Much of what Cook had to say wasn’t new, although it was far more engaging than the sleepy, redundant comments he and CFO Peter Oppenheimer serve up to analysts during those quarterly earnings conference calls. Frequently he sounded very much like the Apple cheerleader he is paid to be, but at times Cook offered clues about Apple’s broader strategies.

Let’s look at what Cook said by category (he switched among topics frequently during the session, which you can hear for yourself here):

The iPhone: Cook said the iPhone has received the highest customer satisfaction ratings of any product Apple has ever shipped, a notable achievement for a company that routinely scores very highly in customer satisfaction.

When asked a question that has been buzzing on the Web for weeks – what’s become of the million or so iPhones Apple said it has sold but have never been activated – Cook acknowledged most of them have found their way to countries in which the iPhone is not yet available.

Without addressing the shared revenue Apple loses from its partner carriers when an iPhone is unlocked for use on another network, Cook said the company “smiles” at the problem. “It means there’s great demand for the iPhone,” he said.

The company will apply the lessons it has learned from selling the iPhone in the U.S. and three European countries as it proceeds with plans to expand availability of the product elsewhere in Europe and in Asia this year, Cook said.

Most intriguingly, he said Apple is not “married to any business model,” suggesting Apple could deviate from having one exclusive carrier per country. Cook explained that different market conditions could require a “different business model,” and in some places “being exclusive might not be in our best interests.”

This may be the first public indication that Apple is considering different approaches to the iPhone-carrier model, at least in some nations. However, Cook only had nice things to say about Apple’s relationship with AT&T, a disappointment to those hoping for a re-evaluation of the exclusivity deal in the U.S.

Cook indicated Apple expects the issue of unlocked iPhones to diminish as the device becomes available in more countries, and ominously hinted at a “series of actions” aimed at thwarting iPhone hackers (presumably those unlocking it, not those installing software on it).

Better news for iPhone owners was Cook’s frequent references to the week-overdue announcement and release next Wednesday (March 6) of the iPhone SDK, which will permit developers to write software legitimately for the iPhone and iPod Touch.

The iPod: Cook reiterated Apple’s position that the iPod Touch is a fresh platform for the company and that developing that platform is a priority. He artfully answered a question about flat iPod sales in the holiday quarter by pointing out that while unit sales increased by only 5 percent, revenues increased by 17 percent, primarily due to the higher margins on the iPod Touch, introduced only last fall.

Meanwhile sales of the low-end, lower margin Shuffle slipped 17 percent worldwide. Cook said Apple cut the price on the Shuffle to $49 Feb. 19 because “we believe there’s elasticity in the market,” whatever that means. He added that the price drop should boost sales a bit in “emerging markets” (such as China and India) as well as in the U.S.

The Mac: “The ceiling for the Mac is nowhere in sight,” Cook said in discussing the Mac’s market share. He noted that Apple sold 7 million Macs in a PC market of 260 million, leaving a lot of room for further growth.

In responding to a question asking why the Mac has become more popular with customers – he said the platform grew 44 percent in the last quarter alone – Cook described the Mac’s gains as “almost a movement.” He continued: “I think it’s gone, in many people’s minds, to asking not why buy a Mac, but why not?”

He cited two statistics showing the Mac’s resurgence in the education market. One was Student Monitor’s annual survey of college students conducted each summer asking which type of computer they planned to buy; this past summer those who said they were buying a Mac rose to 44 percent, 20 points higher than the previous year. Cook gave no source for the second statistic but said the company learned Monday that “Apple has surpassed Dell as the number one supplier of portables to higher education for 2007.”

Apple TV: Cook waffled a bit on the Apple TV, last year described by CEO Steve Jobs as a hobby and the low sales of which led to some Apple critics deriding it as a failure. “We say no to a lot of things,” he said in explaining why Apple expended resources on developing Apple TV. “We do products where we can make a difference and where we control the primary technology.”

Later Cook acknowledged Apple TV is a “niche product,” but said the company thinks that “something cool cold come out of this product.” He essentially admitted the company had erred in treating video like music, expecting customers to buy video as they buy music at the iTunes Store.

Somehow Apple missed that most people watch movies just once and would rather rent than buy them (wasn’t Blockbuster a big enough hint?) The availability of movie rentals combined with the recent changes to Apple TV – essentially releasing it from the bonds of the PC so it can download movies directly from the Internet –sets up the video realm as “an area that could be big for us,” Cook said.

Comments

Elasticity in the market presumably means they think they'll sell enough additional units due to the lower price that they'll more than make up for the revenue loss per unit.

fwiw

David,

You use the verb "loses" in connection with the revenues associated with unlocked iPhones.

This is a point that has come to trouble me. Apple cannot lose revenue it never could have had. There were no carriers with which Apple had a revenue-sharing plan in those countries. Apple cannot lose revenue there, since it is only hypothetical money.

This is like saying Apple's losing revenue because it's not selling internet-connected toasters in Thailand. Well, yes but . . .

It's a logical point but "analysts" have turned this failure of logic into ax they can grind vis a vis Apple.

I think Apple would be very happy to see the phone being sold and used in places where they don't even have a presence yet. It gives them the makings of a worldwide market without, as yet, having to market it worldwide.

And it produces real revenue, not theoretical revenue that is logically impossible to begin with.

Thanks for the update. It's good to see Cook there, a man as important to the company as Jobs.

Thanks again,

Alarik

a reporter for the Baltimore Sun should know what "elasticity" means---or at least look it up before writing "whatever that means". geez. lower prices=more demand (and vice versa)

Alarik is correct. I read with embarrassment that analysts and reporters could comment that Apple "lost" those revenue sharing dollars from the unlocked phones. As long as Apple had no capacity constraint in volume, then those unlocked sales are merely like lower margin products, that's all. If Apple somehow could block those sales, these phones would still not have been bought by US persons.

Great post Alarik!

Critics love to say how Apple is losing revenue on unlocked iPhones. But in actuality, Apple is making big time profits. Think about it: Apple makes 50% profit on the sale of the iPhone hardware. Unlocking an iPhone without authorization automatically voids the warranty. This means Apple does not have to spend any money on warranty service for an unlocked iPhone! They don't suffer lost revenue from a dead unlocked iPhone! This means an unlocked iPhone is pure profit to Apple!

Since the countries where unlocked iPhones are going to have phone companies who REFUSE to share their revenue with Apple (e.g. China), then Apple can't get this revenue stream anyway. Thus, even if Apple sold an unlocked iPhone in China, it still won't make the extra money from shared revenue. Apple loses nothing by having sales of unauthorized unlocked iPhones! Intead, it makes a lot of money and doesn't have to pay for warranty service as well!

That is a great analogy: "Apple is losing billions in revenue by not seeling internet-connected toasters in Thailand" It makes the illogic so much clearer.

Elasticity — it's kind of like IQ ... it can be stretched. :)

No I agree with David. I hate it when people use buzz words in place of what they really mean (elasticity in the market.... ??). It throws people off from what the speaker actually means. I scold my co-workers for throwing words around loosely.

Thanks for the article, I really like how you structured it.

Ellastisticity's not a buzz word:
• Economics (of demand or supply) sensitive to changes in price or income : the labor supply is very elastic.
- New Oxford Dictionary

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