Is the Mac’s market share up – or down?
Research firms IDC and Gartner have released their quarterly market share data and the news for Apple, for the first time in a while, is mixed.
Looking at U.S. market share (Apple doesn’t show up in either company’s worldwide data), the Mac gained year-over-year, but slipped from the third quarter to the fourth.
According to Gartner, Apple shipped 1.035 million Mac units in the U.S. in the fourth quarter of 2007 for an increase of 227,000 over the fourth quarter of 2006. Market share increased a full percentage point, from 5.1 percent to 6.1 percent.
But in October Gartner reported 3Q Mac sales of 1.338 million, which means Apple shipped 303,000 fewer Macs this past quarter. Market share quarter-over-quarter fell 2 full percentage points, from 8.1 percent to 6.1 percent. That’s not good.
The data from IDC looks about the same. It shows Apple shipping 1.058 Macs in the U.S. in the fourth quarter, an increase of 250,000 over 2006. IDC’s numbers put the Mac’s market share at 5.7 percent, up from 4.7 percent in the 4Q 2006 -- like Gartner’s up a full percentage point year-over-year.
And like Gartner’s data, IDC shows a drop from quarter to quarter. In October IDC gave Apple a 6.3 percent market share, about half a percent higher than the 5.7 percent it reports the Mac had in the fourth quarter.
Does this mean the Mac’s comeback has hit a brick wall? Or is it a statistical hiccup?
At this point, it’s probably too soon to tell. I will hazard a guess that strong back-to-school laptop sales in the third quarter gave Apple an exceptional boost and holiday Mac sales simply couldn’t match it.
We’ll find out more when Apple reports its quarterly earnings next Tuesday (Jan. 22).
Comments
If Apple sold their notebooks a little cheaper, they'd probably be flying off the shelves. We all know they won't sell them cheaper, because they would have to lower the price of all of their other computers, effectively lowering their margins.
The low-end MacBooks should ship with a minimum of a DVD burner. And they should lower the price of the black one.
We know they will not do this.
Posted by: patrick | January 17, 2008 6:38 PM
It is a statistical Hiccup. 3Q mac sales are heavily influenced by educational sales both to institutions and students. the 3rd calendar quarter is Apple's strongest quarter. historically, the 4th quarter sales are flat or down from the 3rd quarter. the important indicator is the 4Q year-over-year increase of more than 30%.
Posted by: Will Colsher | January 17, 2008 6:55 PM
As a professional Portfolio Manager on Wall Street that buys "best of brand" stocks and closely monitors Apple's market share (as well as the market share of Wii and the Blackberry), if you look at the Mac market share growing from 3.5% in 2005 to 8% today, these are huge gains. iPod/iPhone/iTouch are the Trojan Horses that bring users into the Mac "ecosystem". I believe that Mac's secret weapon that should grow market share even further is their new way to appeal to the corporate road warrior given new Mac to PC software called Parallel/Bootcamp/VM Vaporware for Mac as this allows corporate road warriors to access their corporate servers thru the PC "virtual" world.
Also, I noticed on the latest market share data that in "early adopter" states like NY and CA, Mac has an amazing 16% share!
Also, the new MacBook Air was a poorly kept secret and I believe many potential Mac buyers held off in their purchase until they could see (and order) the new MBA unit.
Finally, Macs just work better (no anti-virus software to slow machine) and they now offer good discounts if you really explore their on-line store.
Questions? Please contact jiseman@gmail.com
Posted by: Jim | January 19, 2008 9:07 AM