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January 31, 2008

Just wake my Mac Pro when it’s over

It may be asking too much to expect new Mac hardware that doesn’t exhibit any odd behavior, but hope springs eternal.

A few days ago a strange anomaly affecting many owners of the new Mac Pro models turned up on my machine. Waking the Mac Pro from sleep sometimes causes it to spontaneously reboot instead.

I know it’s not just me because the issue is a hot topic on several Mac Web sites including Accelerate Your Mac as well as Apple’s own support forums. The best solution anyone has come up with so far is to reset the System Management Controller (SMC). To do that you unplug everything from the Mac Pro, including the power cord, for at least 15 seconds, then reconnect everything.

I did not have the problem for the first few days I had my Mac Pro, but once it started it happened every time I woke the machine from sleep. Very annoying. I reset the SMC two days ago, which has fixed the problem for the time being.

I say that because others have reported the problem reappears a few days after an SMC reset, necessitating a repeat of the procedure. A few customers even have returned their Mac Pro to the Apple Store for a replacement, only to see the problem flare up on the new one. No one yet has determined a cause. Apple, as usual in cases like this, has kept silent.

The best chance for a solution from Apple may lie in the imminent update to Leopard, 10.5.2, which is rumored to contain many bug fixes and improvements. But that will only help if the problem is software related. If it’s a glitch in the machine’s hardware, a fix won’t be so easy. Apple may have a lot of disgruntled Mac Pro customers on its hands.

Apple might try to weasel out of fixing the problem by telling customers not to put their Mac Pros to sleep, but many Mac desktop owners leave their computers on 24/7. The advantage of sleep is never having to wait for the machine to boot. Mac Pro customers will not want to change their habits to accommodate faulty hardware.

Historically, Apple tends to ignore problems with new Mac models until they get so widely reported it is forced to take action. Though Apple does well in most areas of customer service, rectifying manufacturing blunders has long been a weak spot.

For now, I have my fingers crossed the 10.5.2 update will do the trick.

January 29, 2008

Missing iPhones conundrum puts Apple in a pickle

Where oh where are those iPhones?

Bernstein Research analyst Toni Sacconaghi touched off a frenzy of fretting at the end of last week when he issued a report saying that as many as 1.4 million iPhones are either being used unlocked or are sitting in inventory.

You can read all the details of how Sacconaghi arrived at this conclusion here, but essentially he subtracted the number of iPhones AT&T says it has activated by the number of iPhones Apple says it has sold.

Sacconaghi also estimated that Apple derives as much as 75 percent of its profit from the iPhone from the shared fees it collects from service providers. That means an annual loss of $500 million and 37 cents a share in annual profits.

Another analyst, Gene Munster of Piper Jaffray, came up with somewhat lower numbers but still figured 25 percent of the iPhones sold in the U.S. have been unlocked. He projected a loss of $362 million in revenue over two years.

Commentary from the media has tended toward the dire, with one piece on Australia’s ITWire Web site declaring the missing iPhones “bad news for Apple” and making the preposterous assertion that Apple actually loses money on each $399 sale. Yeah, right.

If Apple has a lot of unsold iPhones sitting around, that would indicate slowing demand, which would be the worst of all scenarios. I doubt this is the problem. During the earnings conference call last week, Apple Chief Financial Officer Peter Oppenheimer made it a point to repeat the company’s confidence in meeting its goal of selling 10 million iPhones in 2008. If sales had shown signs of slowing in the December quarter, Oppenheimer would have avoided the topic.

It strikes me as far more likely Apple has sold a ton of unlocked iPhones. Many of the people in the U.S. who crave the iPhone are well-heeled and technically minded. Plenty of them are willing to take their chances with an unlocked iPhone to avoid a contract with AT&T.

In the three European countries where the iPhone is officially available, customers prefer having a choice of cellular carrier. Third parties are happy to meet the even greater demand for unlocked iPhones there.

Elsewhere in the world, unlocked iPhones are the only kind you can get. People have them in dozens of nations, including China, India and Brazil. Since Apple isn’t shipping iPhones to those countries, they had to be purchased somewhere else.

Two things need to be determined: how much will the proliferation of unlocked iPhones hurt Apple, and what will the company do about it?

The loss in revenue and profits sounds awful, but remember that Apple raked in $24 billion in profit in fiscal 2007. If you figure Apple’s prospects for growth across its various product lines (Mac, iPod, iPhone) will offset a potential recession this year, the company should end up with at least the same revenue for 2008.

With the $9.6 billion head start it got in the December quarter, Apple only needs to average $4.8 billion for the next three to hit $24 billion. Last year it made in the $5 billion to $6 billion range in quarters two through four.

If Apple does lose $500 million to unlocked iPhones in 2008, that’s only 2 percent -- or less -- of its total annual revenue. So it’s not the end of the world.

Of course, every business strives to avoid hits on their revenue whenever possible. What are Apple’s options for retrieving the revenue it stands to lose to unlocked iPhones?

It could continue its hard-line approach, going after those selling unlocked iPhones and “bricking” them with software updates. But that strategy hasn’t worked so well, enraging customers while failing to deter the grey market in unlocked iPhones.

Given this latest difficulty, I am more convinced than ever that Apple’s best path is to sell an unlocked version of the iPhone for $599, the original sales price, while continuing to offer the $399 version as part of a service package with its partner carriers in each country.

Munster has estimated that Apple makes about $432 in shared service fees for each iPhone sold with a two-year contract. The extra $200 Apple would get from an unlocked iPhone only would make up less than half of that profit, but it’s better than losing all of it. Moreover, by offering a legitimately unlocked iPhone, Apple probably would sell more of them, further helping restore otherwise lost revenue.

Demand for unlocked iPhone will keep growing. Rather than fight it, Apple needs to figure out how to meet it and still make a profit.

January 25, 2008

The new Mac Pro’s Achilles heel

With an extra 4 gigabytes of memory and two 500 gigabyte Seagate Barracuda hard drive successfully installed in my new Mac Pro, I fired up the benchmark programs to see if the upgrades have boosted performance.

First I ran GeekBench. I saw very little difference in the scores but for one of the memory tests, “Stdlib Write,” which increased from 2128 to 3689. It appears having 4 sticks of memory installed does aid performance.

Then I ran XBench, which includes a hard disk test. More to the point, it allows you to test any installed hard drive, not just the boot drive. To my surprise, the new drive bested the Apple-supplied drive by about 33 percent – with a score of 70.38 versus 52.80.

I’m pretty sure this is not a fluke, either. When Macworld magazine posted its initial tests of the same stock 2.8 GHz Mac Pro that I have, the hard drive was the weakest link:

“The eight-core 2.8GHz system lagged in some of our tests,” wrote James Galbraith, “results we attribute to its somewhat sluggish Seagate hard drive.”

The Macworld folks went further, swapping out a Western Digital drive from the previous generation 2.66Ghz Mac Pro. The swap slowed multitasking performance on the older machine by 14 percent while speeding up performance on the newer Mac Pro by 31 percent.

Just for kicks I ran XBench on my Mac at work, a dual 2.5GHz G5 Power Mac from mid-2004. The G5 scored 69.72 on the disk test, just a hair under the score for my 500 GB drives.

All of which raises the rather uncomfortable question: why did Apple put a subpar drive in such a premium machine? Almost everything else about the Mac Pro screams: its Quad-core Xeon CPUs, its 800 MHz memory, its PCI Express 2.0 expansion slots, its overall system architecture. Why skimp on one of the most critical components?

It can’t be the expense. The 500 GB Seagates I purchased from Other World Computing cost only $150 apiece. For the tiny nibble it would have taken from its huge profit margin on the Mac Pro – what are we talking about here, $20 $30? -- Apple could have included a better-performing 320 GB drive.

For that matter, Apple could put a better graphics card in the stock configuration. Many Mac Pro buyers are shelling out the extra $200 for the acclaimed NVIDIA GeForce 8800 GT. In the previous configuration, many paid extra for the Radeon X1900 because it was so much better than the default card. Why can’t the stock configuration have a card that’s somewhere in between?

And while I’m ranting: why does Apple charge so much for additional memory? Veteran Mac users have long known this, but does anyone know why they do it?

Had I ordered just an extra 2 GB of RAM from Apple, it would have cost an extra $500. The 4 GB kit I ordered from OWC cost just $200. That’s twice as much memory for less than half the cost. (For the morbidly curious, ordering a Mac Pro fully loaded with 32 GB of RAM costs an extra $9,100; a 32 GB kit from OWC will set you back just $2,900.)

Don’t get me wrong. I love my Mac Pro. It’s wicked fast and whisper-quiet, an awesome piece of hardware. But if you’re going to sell a premium machine, sell a premium machine -- $2,800 is not chump change in the PC market.

Sigh.

January 23, 2008

Conference call gives clues on future of iPod Touch, retail expansion

Reading through the transcript of Apple’s conference call with analysts yesterday, I ran across several intriguing nuggets of information. Such as:

iPod Touch: On several occasions, Apple Chief Financial Officer Peter Oppenheimer referred to the iPod Touch as “an entirely new type of iPod.” From his opening remarks: “This new iPod had the potential to grow the iPod from being just a music and video player into being the first mainstream WiFi mobile platform running all kinds of mobile applications.”

Many pundits (and Touch owners) have declared the iPod Touch the ultimate PDA, but I don’t recall Apple having been this emphatic about it before. This could be a sign that Apple plans a lot of future enhancements to the iPod Touch, both in the software and the hardware. Evolving the iPod line in the direction of a pocket computer is logical as well as a good business move. Despite its recent successes, Apple recognizes that it can’t stand still.

Apple Retail Stores: Apple opened six new stores in the quarter, and now has 204. The company expects to add 35 to 40 locations in 2008, including more outside he United States. The average revenue per store was $8.5 million, up sharply from $6.6 million in the year-ago quarter. Traffic increased by 10 million visitors from last year, to 38.4 million, which translates to 14,700 visitors per store per week. No wonder it always seems like the Apple Stores are packed.

On a similar note, Oppenheimer said Apple plans to expand its presence in Best Buy stores from 286 to 600 over the next six months. The total number of “storefronts” carrying the Mac has increased to 9,500 from 7,700 a year ago. “We have done that because of the momentum we see in the Macintosh business,” explained Apple Chief Operating Officer Timothy Cook.

MacBook Air: When asked where the MacBook Air fits in Apple’s product roadmap, Oppenheimer uncharacteristically responded with a general description of the target customer: “We think that the MacBook Air will appeal to travelers, to professors, to all different kinds of people who want to access the computer very quickly wherever they are.”

He added that pre-orders for the laptop have been “very strong.” The super-slim MacBook Air has been lambasted by critics who say it omits too many features to suit the needs of most customers. Steve Jobs and his deputies obviously believe otherwise.

Leopard: Sales of the latest version of Mac OS X have far outpaced that of its predecessor, Tiger. Leopard revenue was $170 million in the quarter compared to Tiger’s $100 million in its first quarter. Oppenheimer attributed the growth to both a larger installed base of Mac users and that Leopard comes pre-installed on every new Mac, which sold in record numbers (2.3 million) in the December quarter.

One more thing: In a separate announcement yesterday, Apple added a new color to the iPod Nano line, pink. Available now, it’s perfect for people “searching for a special Valentine’s Day gift,” according to Apple Vice President of Worldwide Marketing Greg Joswiak. Other than the color, the particulars are the same as the other Nanos: 8 gigabytes of storage for $199. Too bad I already bought my Significant Other a Nano for Christmas. Ahh, she hates pink anyway.

Apple’s good earnings news not good enough for Wall Street

Apple reported another record quarter yesterday, posting impressive numbers once again. But with expectations running even higher (not to mention a stock market getting bruised by fears of a recession), investors sent AAPL shares tumbling.

Once again, Apple shipped the most Macs ever in one quarter: 2.32 million, 7 percent increase over the previous quarter and a 38 percent increase year-over year. The surprise here was that desktop sales increased 20 percent from the previous quarter, while laptop sales were flat. Year-over-year, laptop sales rose 38 percent and desktops a hefty 53 percent.

Apple Chief Financial Officer Peter Oppenheimer said the Mac desktop rate of growth was over five times that projected for the overall PC desktop market (estimated at 10 percent in the most recent IDC figures). He attributed the desktop gains to the popularity of revamped iMac models released in August.

Investors had no gripes with the Mac’s performance, but deflated by the iPod’s. Though iPod sales rose to 22.1 million, an increase of 5 percent from last year, many analysts had estimated sales closer to 25 million.

Meanwhile, the iPhone sold 2.3 million units. So far it appears sales of the most hyped product of 2007 have not slowed. Oppenheimer said during the earnings conference call with analysts that Apple is “confident in our goal for 10 million for calendar 2008.”

In his Macworld keynote Jan. 15, Steve Jobs said that 4 million iPhones had been sold to date, Oppenheimer noted, which included 3.7 million sold through the end of December. That means Apple sold 300,000 iPhones over the first two weeks of January – not bad post-holiday sales for a pricey consumer electronics device.

Overall Apple exceeded its own forecasts by earning $1.76 a share with profits of $1.58 billion on revenue of $9.6 billion. Though this beat the analysts’ consensus earnings estimate of $1.62 a share on revenue of $9.47 billion, most expected much better results. In the often-wacky world of Wall Street, that means Apple’s earnings are a disappointment.

On top of that Oppenheimer offered lower than anticipated guidance for next quarter’s earnings, further feeding the concerns of already jittery investors. Never mind that Apple is projecting revenue growth of 29 percent year-over-year. After watching AAPL get pummeled last week following the absence of an iPhone-caliber product at the Macworld show, it took only a whiff of negativity to launch a fresh wave of selling.

After shedding $5.72 during regular trading yesterday, AAPL dropped another $17.71 in after hours trading, putting it at $137.93, a 23 percent fall from its December high of $202.96.

Apple’s biggest problem now is the perception that the prospect of imminent economic trouble here in the U.S. and throughout the world will mean slower sales in 2008. Oppenheimer declined to address the issue directly during the conference call, but it could put a drag on Apple’s fortunes this year.

Still, there’s this tidbit of good news: between the boffo profits and other cash generating operations, grew its cash stash by $3 billion, to a phenomenal $18.4 billion. That’s one heckuva rainy day fund.

UPDATE: The selloff continues; as of noon AAPL was down about $26, a 17 percent drop from the previous day's close, leaving the stock under $130. It's getting nasty.

January 21, 2008

Installing Windows on a Mac: The good, the bad, and the ugly

On Friday my Mac Pro upgrades arrived via UPS from Other World Computing – a 4 gigabyte memory kit and two 500 gigabtye Seagate Barracuda hard drives.

I installed them over the weekend – perhaps the easiest hardware upgrade I’ve ever performed. Thanks, Apple.

With the hard drives installed, I moved on to Phase 2: installing a copy of Windows XP Professional on one of the auxiliary drives using Apple’s Bootcamp utility.

Bootcamp worked as advertised, though I’m not sure I’d recommend it to users who aren’t particularly tech savvy. I can see such people getting very nervous during the install process. As Apple warns, making the wrong selection from one of the DOS-looking text menus along the way could wipe the Mac operating off your hard drive. I’d hate to be the tech support guy taking that call.

Once Windows XP was installed, the Mac Pro rebooted into Windows (creepy, I know). That’s when things turned sour.

Within seconds, Windows started to nag me with warning balloons bout the lack of anti-virus software, the urgent need to “activate” Windows and how great it would be if I took a “virtual tour” of Windows to learn about all its great features. Ugh.

The Windows Annoyance Factor rose quickly. I wanted to change a few of the system settings, so I went to the Control Panels area. Finding the Control Panel you want is easy enough, but navigating all the tabs and secondary menus is a nightmare. If you’re lucky (and persistent) you just might find the setting you’re looking for. It’s much easier to locate items in Mac OS X’s System Preferences.

After noticing a lot of essential services weren’t working (such as the Internet), I decided to actually read the Bootcamp instructions I had printed out. Yep, I needed to insert the Leopard disk that came with the Mac Pro to install the proper drivers.

Windows rebooted again, and voila! Everything worked.

That done, I moved on to Phase 3: installing Parallels to enable the use of Windows in the Mac environment without rebooting.

The Parallels installation went smoothly, but after I installed Parallels Tools – the software magic that enables the seamless integration of the Mac OS and Windows – the Windows Annoyance Factor reared its head again. Windows had detected a significant change in my hardware and now needed to be reactivated. (I later discovered a warning to this effect in the copious Parallels user manual.) I had three days until my copy of Windows stopped functioning.

I clicked on the warning balloon to reactivate, which should have been easy. Instead, Windows altered me that I had exceeded my allotted number of activations and needed to contact Microsoft for instructions. I had activated it for the first time just an hour earlier!

I called the toll-free number on the screen and within a minute or two was having a conversation with a computer. The computer voice told me to read an immense serial number-like code to it. After I did that, it gave me another lengthy code, which I typed into a series of 8 boxes. After that my copy of Windows was activated again.

At work, I never fuss with my Windows PC – the IT folk have it set up the way they want it, and that’s fine.

But having experienced a Windows installation at home, I’m learning first-hand at least one reason why many PC users have switched to the Mac. They’ve grown weary of the Windows Annoyance Factor.

January 18, 2008

Leopard gets love, Vista gets dissed

The latest report from Rockville, Md.-based ChangeWave Research reflects customer satisfaction running in opposite directions for Vista and Leopard, the newest version of the Mac operating system.

An amazing 81 percent of customers of those who purchased a Mac in the previous 90 days said they were “very satisfied” with it. This compares to 27 percent of PC buyers who got Vista Home Premium on their new PC and a pathetic 15 percent of those who bought PCs with Vista Home Basic pre-installed.
Cwavejan.gif

According to the ChangeWave report, “Leopard’s high customer satisfaction not only dwarfs its competitors, but it’s having a direct impact on customer intentions to purchase an Apple computer. More than one-in-four respondents (26 percent) say the Leopard OS makes them more likely to buy an Apple computer in the future.”

Seemingly contradicting the IDC and Gartner reports released earlier in the week that showed the Mac’s market share slipping a bit from the third quarter to the fourth, the ChangeWave data showed an increase in Mac buyers. Of those who bought a computer in the past 90 days, 17 percent (up from 14 percent) said they bought a Mac laptop and 16 percent (up from 10 percent) said they bought a Mac desktop.

Looking ahead, of those respondents who said they planned a PC purchase in the next 90 days, 33 percent said they’d buy a Mac laptop and 29 percent a Mac desktop. The laptop number is up from 29 percent in November and from 20 percent a year ago. And that survey was taken before the MacBook Air was announced.

The Mac’s desktop number of planned purchases stayed the same (it was also 29 percent in the November survey), but has risen from 18 percent in the January 2006 survey.

But why does the Mac do so much better in the ChangeWave surveys than in the more conventional measures of market share conducted by IDC and Gartner? The data from those surveys put the Mac’s fourth quarter market share at about 6 percent.

The Mac excels in the ChangeWave data because in this particular survey, the focus is on consumer purchases rather than overall PC purchases. Removing corporate buying from the equation shows just how much progress the Mac has made with the average PC consumer.

Meanwhile, dissatisfaction with Windows Vista has grown so severe that tech Web site InfoWorld has launched a petition to Microsoft to keep selling its predecessor, Windows XP, past the planned June 30, 2008 deadline.

“Millions of us have grown comfortable with XP and don't see a need to change to Vista,” InfoWorld Executive Editor Galen Gruman writes. “It's like having a comfortable apartment that you've enjoyed coming home to for years, only to get an eviction notice.”

Well, as a Mac user I can’t explain the love for Windows XP, but apparently lot of Windows users share Gruman’s sentiments – 30,000 had signed the online petition as of 5 p.m. Jan. 17.

January 17, 2008

Is the Mac’s market share up – or down?

Research firms IDC and Gartner have released their quarterly market share data and the news for Apple, for the first time in a while, is mixed.

Looking at U.S. market share (Apple doesn’t show up in either company’s worldwide data), the Mac gained year-over-year, but slipped from the third quarter to the fourth.

According to Gartner, Apple shipped 1.035 million Mac units in the U.S. in the fourth quarter of 2007 for an increase of 227,000 over the fourth quarter of 2006. Market share increased a full percentage point, from 5.1 percent to 6.1 percent.

But in October Gartner reported 3Q Mac sales of 1.338 million, which means Apple shipped 303,000 fewer Macs this past quarter. Market share quarter-over-quarter fell 2 full percentage points, from 8.1 percent to 6.1 percent. That’s not good.

The data from IDC looks about the same. It shows Apple shipping 1.058 Macs in the U.S. in the fourth quarter, an increase of 250,000 over 2006. IDC’s numbers put the Mac’s market share at 5.7 percent, up from 4.7 percent in the 4Q 2006 -- like Gartner’s up a full percentage point year-over-year.

And like Gartner’s data, IDC shows a drop from quarter to quarter. In October IDC gave Apple a 6.3 percent market share, about half a percent higher than the 5.7 percent it reports the Mac had in the fourth quarter.

Does this mean the Mac’s comeback has hit a brick wall? Or is it a statistical hiccup?

At this point, it’s probably too soon to tell. I will hazard a guess that strong back-to-school laptop sales in the third quarter gave Apple an exceptional boost and holiday Mac sales simply couldn’t match it.

We’ll find out more when Apple reports its quarterly earnings next Tuesday (Jan. 22).

January 16, 2008

Macworld keynote suffers by comparison to fantasies

Even before Steve Jobs concludes one of his legendary keynotes, the grousing begins. This time has been no different.

Too many Apple fans get caught up in the pre-keynote hype, rumors and wish lists that build expectations for extremely cool but utterly unlikely wonder-toys. Disappointment is almost a given.

People wanted a 3G iPhone – they didn’t get it. People wanted a WiMax-enabled touch screen mini-laptop, but got only the MacBook Air. People wanted to be blown away by another game-changing product like last year’s iPhone.

Wall Street has also given the keynote a thumbs-down, slicing $9.74 from AAPL yesterday and so far another $8 today, leaving the stock hovering at $160.

I have been amused over the past few days by frequent glowing references to the 2007 MWSF keynote, which -- benefiting from the hindsight of the iPhone’s success -- is considered a classic.

Lest we forget, many Mac faithful were distraught over the absence of Mac news in last year’s keynote. Yesterday Jobs gave us a new Mac laptop and new hardware to back up our Macs. Just last week he gave us new pro desktops and servers.

Most of the discontent on what Jobs did announce has centered on the MacBook Air. Critics don’t like its sealed, non-user-replaceable battery, its lack of an optical drive, its lack of Ethernet and FireWire ports, its slower CPU (well, slower than a regular MacBook’s). Sure it’s thin, but it’s still too wide and long, they moan. Australia's APC magazine actually posted article listing the top 10 things wrong with the new MacBook.

The new MacBook Air
mbookair.jpg

A few have defended the MacBook Air, noting it is not positioned as a primary machine but as a highly portable companion to a more powerful Mac. It won’t be for everyone. But it will have a constituency.

Disenchanted Apple fans weren’t the only ones finding fault; several media pundits weighed in as well with a negative take on yesterday’s events in San Francisco.

Perhaps the worst example was Lance Ulanoff of PC Magazine, who interprets the keynote’s dearth of paradigm-changing products as evidence that Apple has become a tech follower, not a leader.

An ultra-portable notebook, online video rental, a networked backup storage device have all been done, he writes. “There isn’t an iPhone in the bunch,” Ulanoff yawns.

Of course, that’s what the “experts” said one year ago when Jobs introduced the iPhone. There were plenty of smart phones out there already. Apple was late to a crowded market and would get eaten alive. Yesterday Jobs noted that the iPhone had snapped up 19.5 percent of the smart phone market in its first quarter of availability.

Ulanoff undercuts the new iTunes Movie Rental service with the same “others are already doing it” argument. Coupled with the new Apple TV software (the hardware remains the same), Apple appears to have an end-to-end digital video download solution brewing that could someday rival its iTunes-iPod digital music behemoth. It’s a big deal.

Others may offer movies over the Internet, but no one combines all the pieces the way Apple does. No one has this kind of integration between the Internet, your computer and your TV, much less offers multiple options for viewing purchased content. Who else can put a rented movie on your iPhone and your HDTV?

True, this year’s keynote did not have an iPhone to dominate it. In fact, I’ll go so far as to say that while there was less flash, there was more substance. Don’t be surprised if the pre-Macworld speculation next year dwells on whether Jobs’ 2009 keynote will be as crammed with as many juicy announcements as the 2008 edition.

January 15, 2008

Super-thin MacBook, new Apple TV, iTunes Movie Rentals dazzle Macworld attendees

Apple CEO Steve Jobs delivered no huge surprises in his keynote address this morning in San Francisco, but still hit home runs with the new Macbook Air laptop and the iTunes Movie Rental Service.

Both had been rumored in recent weeks, but one can never be sure what’s going to happen in a Macworld keynote.

Though he saved the MacBook Air for last, the iTunes Movie Rental Store announcement was probably more significant in terms of what it will mean to Apple in the long term. This move should position Apple to dominate the realm of video downloads.

Jobs said that all the major film studios were on board, a major coup for Apple. The rental service will offer new films 30 days after their release on DVD as well as a library of older films. New films will cost $3.99 to rent, older titles $2.99. The iTunes Store also will continue to sell movies and TV shows at their current prices.

Customers will be able to watch the movies instantly, and can view a film as often as they like within 24 hours of starting the stream. If a user wants to finish watching their movie on their iPod or iPhone, they can do that, too. Users have 30 days to launch the stream before the rental expires.

The iTunes Movie Rental Store service launches today, Jobs said, with 100 titles, but will have 1,000 by the end of February. At first the service will be available only in the United States, but Jobs said it will be available internationally “later this year.”

Just as significant as the announcement of the iTunes rental service is the vehicle with which many customers are likely to access it: a much-improved Apple TV.

No longer does the Apple TV need to be tethered to a computer for functionality. As I had hoped, the device can access the Internet directly through a wireless connection, allowing it to link to the iTunes Store directly. Customers can browse movies, TV shows and music on their TV screen right from the snazzy Apple TV interface. You can buy or rent.

After you’ve made your choice you can watch the content on your TV or your computer – or your iPod or iPhone. The Apple TV still syncs with your computer, but now it also syncs backwards. So stuff you obtain via Apple TV will be available on your computer, too.

Apple didn’t stop there. The new Apple TV can access photos from Flickr or a .Mac site as well as YouTube videos. Apple has vastly improved Apple TV by allowing a variety of ways to access digital content (though digital rights management was never mentioned … hmmm). And on top of all that, the company dropped the price of Apple TV from $299 to $229. The few who bought an Apple TV last year will get a free software upgrade to enable these features. I think Apple will sell a lot more Apple TVs in 2008 than it did in 2007.

The MacBook Air gave Jobs some sexy new Mac hardware to show off. The 3-pound notebook is wedge-shaped, just .76 inches thin at its thickest point and an astonishing .16 inch thin at its slimmest. It sports a 13.3-inch LED display and a full-sized backlit keyboard (the keys are black). The trackpad is oversized to allow the use of iPhone-like gestures, such as twisting your fingers to rotate an image in iPhoto.

The MacBook Air uses a tiny 80-gigabyte hard drive like the one found in the iPod Classic, and comes standard with a generous 2 GB of memory, the same as the MacBook Pro. The price: $1,799.

But the MacBook Pro’s most distinguishing feature is what it doesn’t have – an optical drive. One can buy an external SuperDrive that connects via USB for $99, but Jobs argued that people won’t bother. “We don’t think most users will miss the optical drive or need the optical drive,” Jobs said. As an alternative Jobs said the MacBook Air will be able to access the optical drives of other Macs or PCs over a wireless network.

The omission of an optical drive recalls Jobs’ introduction of the first iMac in 1997, which omitted a floppy disk drive (though external ones could be purchased as an option). Clearly Jobs foresees optical media – CDs and DVDs – suffering the same fate as floppies.

Jobs also introduced new software features for the iPhone and iPod Touch, as well as a new wireless hardware backup device, Time Capsule. Designed to work with Mac OS X 10.5 Leopard’s Time Machine automatic backup feature, Time Capsule uses the fast 802.11n wireless protocol and comes in two sizes: a 500 GB version for $299 and a 1 terabyte version for $499. I wish I had known about this before I bought a Buffalo LinkStation a few months ago. (sigh.)

I may have more thoughts on the keynote later.

January 14, 2008

More Mac Pro benchmark data

The other day I wrote of my impressions of my new Mac Pro, and some readers expressed interest in its benchmark scores. So today I am posting the data files of the results of two benchmarking utilities, Geekbench and XBench.

This is a stock Mac Pro with the twin 2.8 GHz Quad-core Xeons, 2 GB of RAM, 320 GB hard drive and the ATI Radeon 2600 HD graphics card. The stock hard drive appears to be a Seagate Barracuda with an 8 MB cache, which could account for the less than stellar hard drive scores. I will test again when the new 500 GB Barracudas arrive with 16 MB of cache.

I have run the tests several times, usually after a fresh reboot and with no other apps running. I also ran the Cocktail utility. My typical XBench score runs in the high 150s; Geekbench has ranged from 7550 to 7992. Don't ask me to explain it.

Here are the test results saved in the format of the benchmark app that created them. Click on the link to download:

Geekbench results

XBench Results

January 12, 2008

Hands-on with the new 8-core Mac Pro

It’s been a long time coming, my friends.

Friday I replaced my August 2001 Quicksilver G4 867 PowerMac with a new Mac Pro, the stock configuration with twin 2.8 gigahertz quad-core Intel Xeons.

I have on order from Other World Computing an additional 4 gigabytes of memory and two 500 GB Seagate Barracuda hard drives to populate two more of the Mac Pro’s four drive bays. (Tip for those new to the Mac: never buy memory or hard drives from Apple. The company has always drastically overcharged for those commodities. Better to buy such things from a Mac-oriented vendor like OWC, which – impressively -- had the faster memory modules designed for the new Mac Pros on its Web site the same day the machines were announced.)

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I also plan to install a copy of Windows XP Professional on one of the spare drives to use with Bootcamp and Parallels. I don’t plan to use Windows often, but sometimes it is a necessary evil.

Now, on to my impressions of the Mac Pro thus far:

Its speed lives up to any Apple bragging. I haven’t been able to test many apps yet, but everything happens almost instantly. My Geekbench score was 7837, with the Quicksilver scoring 504 on the same test. I will test again when I get the additional memory modules; supposedly the Mac Pro prefers at least four of its eight RAM slots filled. There’s also speculation on some Mac Web sites that an update to Mac OS X (10.5.2), expected during Macworld next week, will bring further speed improvements to the Mac Pro. I will post benchmark results on the blog as I implement upgrades.

The Mac Pro is as shockingly quiet as it is blazingly fast. When I say quiet, I mean you wouldn’t know it’s running if you didn’t see the power light glowing on the front. The most noise it makes is when it’s accessing the hard drive, and even that’s barely audible.

It’s far quieter than the Quicksilver, and don’t get me started on Dual G5 wind tunnel I use at The Sun. Even though it sits under my desk, the G5’s multiple fans make an ever-changing distracting racket. I can feel it blowing heat on my legs. I wonder if there’s any money in The Sun’s computer hardware budget ...

So far I like the slim aluminum keyboard, but I had already gotten used to the “chiclet” style keys on my MacBook. I prefer it, though it may not please everyone.

The Mighty Mouse is another story. I found myself accidentally activating Exposé about every 15 seconds until I went into the System Preferences and turned off the side buttons. Trying to use the right side for right-clicking went poorly as well; one needs to be very precise in applying the pressure to get the mouse to right or left click. So I set both front buttons to left-click and set the scroll ball for right-clicks. I’ll give it a few weeks but could end up going back to the cheap Kensington mouse still attached to the Quicksilver.

One piece of Apple software that has not received the kudos it deserves is the Migration Assistant. I had never had the opportunity to use it before, and expected most of my basic files to be moved over, but was astounded when it transferred my entire user profile in every detail. When I rebooted, my desktop appeared exactly as it had on the Quicksilver, right down to the scattered files and folders and my choice of desktop background art.

Setting up the Quicksilver in FireWire Target Disk mode, the entire process took less than two hours, and that was with about 40 gigabytes of data to transfer. I can’t imagine how difficult this task would have been on a Windows PC.

One slight concern was that the Migration Assistant also transferred all the system hacks that I had running on the Quicksilver, which runs Tiger as its primary operating system. However, I had no meltdowns. FruitMenu appears to have disabled itself. MenuMeters works fine. (I can’t tell you how cool it is to see the eight CPUs tracked in the menu bar.)

I have not experienced the most widely reported problem with the new Mac Pros, the failure to wake from sleep or freeze up while waking from sleep. I have done it at least a half dozen times in the past two days without incident.

After 48 hours, I’m very pleased with this machine. Now if you’ll excuse me, I’m going back into “play” mode.

January 9, 2008

All Stargate SG-1 episodes now available on iTunes

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Last night I received an e-mail from Apple notifying me that all seasons of the great sci-fi series “Stargate SG-1” can now be purchased at the iTunes Store. Upon visiting the store, I noticed that all the episodes of its spin-off, “Stargate Atlantis” also appear to be available.

Although many Sci-Fi Network shows (like “Battlestar Galactica”) were pulled from the iTunes store in early December as a result of the Apple-NBC Universal squabble, the Stargate series is produced by MGM Television Entertainment, which is owned by Sony and thus outside of NBC Universal’s control.

I’d still prefer that Apple and Universal kiss and make up. I believe that eventually they will, despite the existence of Hulu and other alternatives. If Apple succeeds in becoming the premier provider of video downloads over the next year or so, the pressure will be on Universal to bring its content back to iTunes.

Stargate Atlantis Programming Note: Do you think Dr. Elizabeth Weir is now leading an evil collection of Super Replicators?

January 8, 2008

Gazing into the Macworld keynote crystal ball...

One week before Steve Jobs takes the stage in San Francisco for his annual Macworld keynote, the Mac universe is abuzz with the usual rumors and speculation.

Regulations governing Apple pundits require that I contribute to the collective cacophony or forfeit my license to blog on Apple. In that spirit, here’s my take on what might be coming – or not – on Jan. 15:

Mac Pro update – Apple completely shocked me by announcing new pro towers (and server models) this morning. I don't recall Apple ever making such a major product announcement just one week before a Stevenote. So these rumors panned out early. The twin quad core CPUs (giving this Mac 8 cores of processing power) are standard as expected, but there is no mention of Blu-ray DVD support. Steve will mention this, but not spend much time on it.

Retail stats – Steve will probably open the keynote with a rundown of assorted statistics demonstrating Apple’s prodigious business successes. We will hear about how many millions of people visited Apple’s retail stores, and that half of them were “new to the platform.” Steve will tell us how many new stores opened in 2007, and may announce new stores in such countries as China, Brazil and Mexico.

He should gloat about yesterday’s Bernstein Research report that showed Apple’s annual sales per square foot of retail space light years ahead of other retailers. At $4,491 per square foot, Apple not only clobbered Best Buy at $991/sq. ft. but also handily outshone other upscale retailers such as Saks ($388/sq. ft.), Coach ($1648/sq. ft.) and Tiffany and Co. ($2,746/sq. ft.).

Leopard stats – Steve will tell us how many copies of Mac OS X 10.5 have been sold since its launch at the end of October. Whatever the number, it will be the best operating system launch in Apple history. Leopard also will have had the fastest adoption rate of any Mac operating system version.

Office for the Mac 2008 – Craig Eisler, the new general manager of Microsoft’s Mac Business Unit, will join Steve onstage to introduce Office for Mac 2008. There will be a tedious demo.

Other software – Since iWork and iLife both were released in August, we won’t hear of them in the keynote. In fact, it’s hard to say what other software might get mentioned, since Apple got most of its upgrades out over the summer. He might spend a few moments on the prosumer video editing program Final Cut Express, which was updated in mid-November.

Video – The other week I predicted some major video-related announcements at the Stevenote. We will hear about the new iTunes movie rental service, heretofore unannounced by Apple but widely reported in the mainstream media. Various news reports over the past few weeks have said Apple is on the verge of making deals with almost all the major film studios, including 20th Century Fox, Walt Disney, Warner Bros., Paramount and Sony, MGM and Lionsgate. Availability is the major question here; if the deals aren’t final, the service may not launch for a few more months.

Apple TV – Going hand-in-hand with the iTunes Store movie rental news should be an announcement of a new, improved version of the Apple TV. This is not a shoo-in, but it would make a lot of sense for Apple to fix this product by adding the ability to record TV shows (like a TiVo) and access the Internet independently of a computer. The pièce de résistance will be integration with the iTunes Store, so that music, videos and movies could be ordered directly from the user’s sofa with the included remote control.

New iPods – You got ‘em in September. Let’s not be greedy.

iPhone updates – Some think Steve will announce a 3G iPhone next Tuesday; my gut feeling is that it’s too soon. Even if he does announce it, you won’t be able to buy one for several months. One thing we will get at some point during the keynote: stats on how many iPhones have been sold, and a recap of the product’s launch in the U.K., France and Germany. Steve might announce the next nation(s) set to get the iPhone (Spain? Italy? Japan?), but I haven’t read any rumors that further deals are near.

Steve will definitely mention the software development kit that will allow third-party developers to write programs to run on the iPhone. Although Steve has said the SDK would be available in February, he might wow the crowd by announcing its immediate availability.

One more thing ... One product the rumor sites have convinced themselves is coming at Macworld is some sort of Mac subnotebook, something smaller and lighter than a MacBook. This device could incorporate the same touch screen technology used in the iPod Touch. It could use flash memory in place of a hard drive, or at the very least will use flash memory to speed boot times. It will use a LED display (Apple has committed to using the more environmentally friendly LED technology in all its displays.) Despite the prevalence of rumors about this, no one is quite sure what such a beast will look like. But the odds are high we will see some incarnation of a MacBook Mini.

For anyone who’d like to follow the keynote live (it starts at 9 a.m. PST, or noon Baltimore time), several Web sites will be posting updates during the event. I prefer Engadget, but a full list of sites offering coverage will appear on MacSurfer the day of the event.

January 6, 2008

Thoughts on the latest iTunes-iPod lawsuit

I have been ruminating for days over the antitrust lawsuit filed in California Dec. 31 charging Apple with monopolistic behavior in the digital music market. While the case looks weak, it also draws attention to some questionable Apple policies.

This suit came to light late Thursday when Information Week broke the story.

The suit accuses Apple of using its dominant position in the digital music market to stifle the competition in several ways. One way is the iPod’s lack of support for Microsoft’s Windows Media Audio format (and by extension its accompanying digital rights management), employed by almost all other digital music players and online download stores.

Another way Apple “locks out” rivals is its refusal to license the FairPlay DRM it uses in the AAC-formatted songs sold from the iTunes Store, so competitors don’t have the option of offering FairPlay-compatible devices or music.

After reading through the lawsuit myself, I must say I was astounded at the misinformation and exaggeration it contained. A few examples:

The suit on several occasions refers to how Apple’s behavior has restrained “what little competition remains in the digital music markets.” Although some digital music operations (both hardware makers and online stores) have scaled back or withdrawn, that sort of shaking out happens in every industry.

Furthermore, the struggles of a few have not discouraged new entrants on both sides of the market: Microsoft with its Zune player in 2006 and Amazon.com with its MP3 download store this past fall. If Apple had monopolistic control of the digital music market, new challengers would not dare enter it.

Apple in fact has plenty of competition. Consumers can easily avoid Apple’s products and services if they so choose. It’s been obvious for years that most choose Apple’s products because they like them better, not because they feel they have no choice.

The suit talks a lot about how iPod owners are “forced” to buy online music from iTunes, and that purchasing FairPlay AAC songs from iTunes “locks” that the buyer to the iPod, as the songs cannot be played on any other music player.

First of all, the aforementioned Amazon.com store sells MP3s with no DRM that can play on any player made by any vendor. For that matter, the iPod can play unprotected MP3s obtained from any source (including illegally).

Second, Steve Jobs said in his “Thoughts on Music” essay last year that only 3 percent of the music on the average iPod is purchased from the iTunes Store. Most iPods are filled with music ripped from the owner’s CD collection. Even the FairPlay stuff bought from iTunes can be burned to a CD and re-ripped back to a computer in a DRM-free format.

While the link between the iPod and the FairPlay music sold on iTunes does exert some pull in keeping customers inside the Apple ecosystem, it’s not as ironclad as the lawsuit claims. There’s a fence, but the gate is unlocked.

The suit further alleges that Apple’s monopoly control over the market allows it to “sell the iPod at prices far above those that would prevail in a competitive market.” If the iPod is so overpriced, it should be easy for rivals to undercut it by large margins on price in an effort to lure bargain-conscious buyers. But for the most part, Apple’s competitors sell their music players for about the same price as comparable iPods.

Yet as preposterous as this lawsuit is, it raises persistent troubling issues with the iTunes-iPod ecosystem. Apple may not be in violation of antitrust law, but its refusal to license FairPlay or make iPods compatible with Microsoft’s WMA format will continue to irk some consumers.

The most valid part of the lawsuit notes that many consumers, unaware of the competing DRM formats, could reasonably believe that all online music would be compatible with any digital music player, in much the same way they expect all CDs to play in any CD players.

Now I can’t blame Apple for not wanting to license WMA from Microsoft. Why would Apple want to pay its historic rival an annual licensing fee for a second DRM format (in addition to FairPlay)? There’s no benefit in it for Apple. Not to mention the irony of licensing a format for the iPod that no longer works in Mac OS X – that’s right, DRM-laden Windows Media files won’t play on a Mac. (The excellent Flip4Mac utility only works with unprotected WMA files.)

But why not license FairPlay? In his “Thoughts on Music” Jobs explained Apple did not want to license its FairPlay DRM because it feared that giving the code to other companies would increase the chances of it being leaked on the Internet and cracked by hackers.

That argument feels flimsy; Microsoft has licensed its WMA DRM for years. While it is breached from time to time, a patch has always followed fairly quickly. For that matter, Apple’s refusal to license FairPlay has not prevented it from being breached and requiring occasional patches.

I suspect Apple will keep its iPod-iTunes-FairPlay fence intact as long as it can. Its gaps give Apple a defense against these antitrust lawsuits, but its continued existence helps maintain the business model. Still, it smells just a bit unethical and not at all consumer-friendly – a trait Apple supposedly champions.

Of course, this entire issue will go away whenever DRM-encumbered music does. Business Week reported Friday that the last of the four major labels, Sony BMG, had agreed to start selling unprotected MP3s on Amazon’s online store. So far only EMI is selling DRM-free songs on iTunes, but now that Amazon has signed the others it could only be a matter of time before they all go DRM-free on iTunes. (Well, maybe not Universal…)

With no FairPlay and no WMA DRM music to worry about, accusations of “lock-in” will crumble. Apple almost certainly will continue to dominate the digital music industry, but its foes will need to find a new attack vector.

January 4, 2008

Ouch!

Apple stock got hammered Friday losing $14.88, or 7.6 percent in a session that saw the Dow lose 256 points and the Nasdaq 98.

While the bad day on Wall Street didn’t help matters, apparently the AAPL sell off was precipitated when J.P. Morgan analyst Christopher Danely lowered his rating on Intel from overweight to neutral. Danely said channel checks indicated Intel had a slowdown in orders in the fourth quarter of 2007.

Two days earlier Bank of America Securities also downgraded Intel for similar reasons. Intel’s stock lost $2, or 8.1 percent Friday after the one-two punch.

Wall Street interpreted Intel’s possible problems as a harbinger of trouble for the PC industry and punished PC makers accordingly. In addition to AAPL’s losses, Dell shares shed 6.8 percent and Hewlett Packard dropped 5.6 percent.

While I won’t dispute the analysts’ contention that Intel’s business could be slowing heading into 2008, I’m not so sure sales of Macs will suffer. Mac sales have been rising steadily for two years, and with fresh product announcements less than two weeks away at the Macworld show, I’d be surprised to see that trend change.

And it should be noted that even if Mac sales do turn out to be weaker in the first quarter of 2008, Apple has two other strong core businesses in the iPod and iPhone. Just a few weeks ago UBS analyst Ben Reitzes raised his price target on AAPL from $220 to $235.

Wall Street should know better by now than to lump Apple in with the other PC makers. When less reactionary investors see AAPL trading at $180.05, two words will come to mind: buying opportunity.

January 1, 2008

More Mac users on the Web, survey says

The monthly data from Net Applications was released today – yes, New Year’s Day – and it shows that the Mac has eked out another incremental gain in share.

California-based Net Applications doesn’t measure market share by units sold, as do other research companies, but by sampling traffic data from its client Web sites.

For December the Mac’s share of Internet traffic was 7.31 percent, up from 6.8 percent in November. An incremental gain, but if you look at where the Mac’s share was in December 2006 – 5.67 percent – you can see the results of a steady upward trend throughout 2007. If you go back to January 2006 (the earliest data available on Net Application’s Web site), the Mac had only a 4.21 percent share.

That’s a major leap for the Mac platform, and jibes