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Wall Street cheers iPhone sales data

Apple’s stock rose as much as 4 percent today on a report by research firm iSuppli that the iPhone snatched 1.8 percent of the mobile handset market in July, outselling all other so-called “smart phones.” That category includes Research in Motion’s legendary Blackberry. According to iSuppli, sales of the iPhone also matched those of LG Electronics’ Chocolate, the most popular “feature phone” (a less-capable category of cell phone) in the United States.

Remember, Steve Jobs’ stated goal for the iPhone was to grab just 1 percent of the cell phone market. For the iPhone to nearly double that in its first month is a tribute to Apple’s sixth-month marketing frenzy leading up to the device’s retail debut.

The bigger question here is whether the iPhone will be able to sustain its market share as the novelty gradually wears off. I would consider the iPhone an ongoing success even if its share drops much closer to 1 percent. Sales at that level would still meet Apple’s expectations, though doubtless be greeted by headlines such as “iPhone sales plummet,” or similar sensationalist drivel.

But our friends at iSuppli don’t foresee any drop-off in iPhone sales; on the contrary, they project steady sales growth for the next four years. The El Segundo, Calif.-based company repeated its prediction of 4.5 million iPhones shipping in 2007, “rising to more than 30 million units in 2011.” Again recall that Jobs has set an iPhone sales goal of just10 million over the first 18 months. An iSuppli press release gives iPhone sales projections of 13.5 million for 2008, 21.1 million for 2009 and 26.8 million for 2010.

Sales figures like that – if they indeed come to pass -- will not only please Steve Jobs, but everyone else who holds AAPL stock.

Comments

Apple's stated goal was 1% of the world wide market share for phones in 2008, which was 10M phones on total sales of 1B. Achieving 1.8% market share in the US, while a great success, does not already place them at their goal, as the global market is much bigger than the US.

iSuppli's forecast does have them exceeding their target, but they still need to stretch a little in order to hit it from a run rate perspective if the 800K units in July that many are forecasting proves to be correct.

But the issue is that the iphoney is *not* a "smartphone", itis a very dumbphone. It is not flexible, is very locked down, and does not let users use it easily as a configurable PDA... unless the definition of smartphone changed during the last few months. The iphone is a media player with phone service and a few basic notation functions, like a Helio on steroids.

isuppli has retracted this report, apparently it "forgot" to include enterprise and corporate direct sales. When these are factored it, the Blackberry alone sold twice as many as the iphone in July.
http://www.macworld.co.uk/ipod-itunes/news/index.cfm?newsid=19078&pagtype=allchandate

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About David Zeiler
David ZeilerDavid Zeiler follows all developments related to Apple, Inc. Having spent his early computing years on the Apple II platform, he moved to the Mac in 1993.

At The Baltimore Sun he designs pages, compelled against his will to work on a Windows-based PC.
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