Apple’s blowout earnings: Get used to it
Apple posted its best June quarter in company history, with virtually every product line contributing to a net quarterly profit of $818 million, yet many new stories couldn’t resist focusing on the iPhone. Because it debuted on the evening of June 29, the iPhone had only 30 hours of sales to contribute to Apple’s third quarter. But as the Paris Hilton of consumer electronics, it gets more than its share of media attention.
After AT&T lowered expectations with the announcement that it had activated only 146,000 iPhones in the product’s first two days, everyone was eager for Apple’s number. As it happened, Apple says it sold 270,000 iPhones, much higher than AT&T’s number but far short of the outlandish analyst estimates of 500,000 and up. A few stories even referred to the number as “disappointing.” (Some of you may be wondering where you last saw that 270,000 figure; I made that guesstimate in my entry on Tuesday.)
Apple itself never announced a goal for the first weekend, although it has repeated often a goal of selling 10 million iPhones by the end of 2008. The company expects to sell 1 million iPhones within the current quarter. That it failed to meet the sky-high expectations of a few feverish analysts is not cause for concern. As Apple CFO Peter Oppenheimer pointed out during the earnings conference call yesterday, it took all of seven quarters for Apple to sell 1 million iPods.
Analyst consternation notwithstanding, the iPhone has enjoyed a resoundingly successful launch. Oppenheimer said Apple plans to start rolling out the iPhone in Europe before the end of this year and in Asia before the end of 2008. Apple officials predictably deflected all inquiries regarding plans for future iPhones, but Oppenheimer did say the company is committed to the product as a “third business” to compliment its Mac and iPod segments. If you want still another hint of Apple’s grand intentions, try this teaser Steve Jobs quote from the press release: “Our new product pipeline is very strong.” He could be talking about Macs and iPods, but that remark is the back end of a longer quote lauding the initial success of the iPhone. Combine the iPhone’s spread onto other continents with the inevitable introduction of models at lower price points, and you’ll get some idea of this product’s tremendous growth potential.
It will take a while, though, for the iPhone to make a dent in Apple’s earnings because the company plans to use subscription-like accounting to spread the revenue from each sale over 24 months. Consider this, however: if you could toss the 730,000 iPhones the company expects to sell by September 30 into its fourth quarter earnings, it would probably comprise about 7 percent of the total. For comparison’s sake, the iPod accounted for less than 12.5 percent of Apple’s third quarter revenue in 2004 – more than two and a half years after its introduction. Just one quarter later the iPod accounted for nearly 23 percent of revenue, and in the most recent quarter, 29 percent. How much do you think the iPhone will contribute to Apple’s bottom line in 2009?
Investors understandably have been preoccupied with potential iPhone profit all year, boosting Apple’s shares almost 50 percent. But the iPhone isn’t the only horse in Apple’s stable: the company’s oldest and still most lucrative business, its Macintosh computers, has been growing dramatically and shows no sign of slowing down. I’ll discuss that further in another post later today...



Comments
Regardless of how Apple did, there is some false logic here. The comparison between the first year of iPod and the first year of iPhone is missing something pretty huge: The whole world knows about the iPhone, whereas they didn't know about the iPod. It's like comparing the first week of ticket sales of The Godfather and The Godfather 2. Obviously it's an invalid comparison.
Posted by: James Davis | July 26, 2007 8:24 PM