The iPhone doesn’t just have the bloggers, analysts and news sites mesmerized; several research firms have now added their voices to the cacophony, conducting polls of potential iPhone customers to gauge interest in the product. The first poll, by a Seattle-based company called M:Metrics, had lots of promising data on iPhone. Although the second poll, jointly conducted by IDC of Framingham, Mass., and Market Insight Corporation of Palo Alto, Calif., also points to boffo iPhone sales, its analysts seem preoccupied with ways the device could fail.

First, the upbeat news: the M:Metrics survey, conducted in April, sought the opinions of 11,060 mobile subscribers in the United States and 5,293 in the United Kingdom. Of those two samples 14 percent in the U.S. and a jaw-dropping 30 percent in the U.K. expressed “strong interest” in buying an iPhone. That translates to 19 million top prospects in the U.S. with another 7 million in the U.K., according to the data M:Metrics has published. That’s the highest level of interest anyone thus far has estimated.

Mark Donovan, senior vice president and senior analyst at M:Metrics, called the number of interested U.S. consumers “an impressive figure, when you consider the installed base of most high-end devices rarely approaches one million and respondents were informed of the price point as well as of the AT&T exclusive.”

In a Computerworld Web site article, Donovan noted that while high monthly contract fees or potential technical glitches could create problems for the iPhone, he did not suggest such a fate inevitably awaited the iPhone.

The IDC report offered a bit more of a, shall we say, negative spin. “Mass consumer adoption of the iPhone not a certainty,” warns the headline on the press release. This survey solicited the opinions of 456 people who happened to be shopping for a mobile phone on a Web site called MyProductAdvisor.com and volunteered to answer the questions. (So much for a scientific sample, eh?) The press release states that “only” 10 percent said they would buy an iPhone at its announced prices of $499 and $599 along with a two-year contract with carrier AT&T. Nearly 18 percent more of the respondents, IDC says, would go for the iPhone if its price dropped to $299. Nearly 60 percent of those who responded were “interested” in the iPhone, whether or not they wanted to buy it. By my calculations, that means 17 percent of the “interested” group are likely iPhone customers.

If this survey has even a shred of validity, it’s great news for Apple. The 10 percent of the respondents who expressed willingness to buy the iPhone is 10 times the number Steve Jobs set as his target. It’s even higher than the 7 percent market share that Piper Jaffray analyst Gene Munster has projected for the iPhone sales in 2009. Apple knows that most customers will balk at the cost. What’s notable is that 10 percent of current cell phone users in both polls say they are willing to pay it. And by the time all those folks own an iPhone, Apple will have released at least one moderately priced model to capture the next tier of customers.

But IDC’s analysts see only dark clouds on the iPhone horizon. “While the allure of owning the next ‘cool’ device will undoubtedly have early adopters – and die-hard Apple fans – queuing up to get the iPhone regardless of the price, the associated costs of ownership will persuade many others into a ‘wait and see’ position,” IDC Director of Mobility Research Shiv K. Bakhshi, PhD, is quoted in the press release. He also dings Apple and AT&T for a “lack of clarity” on the service plans. True, we don’t know how many minutes that customers will get or what the monthly fees will be. But the iPhone doesn’t go on sale until June 29. Call me crazy, but I bet Apple and AT&T will disclose the service plan details by then.

It gets worse. Chris Hazelton, a senior analyst of Mobile Device and technology Trends at IDC, speculated in a Computerworld Web article that if the early buyers of the iPhone don’t like it, the negative chatter will rapidly torpedo the device. Hazelton went on to make this show-stopping statement: “It’s a complicated phone, basically a computer, and like computers, like Macs, it may crash, maybe a lot.” Then the Computerworld paraphrases Hazelton’s theory that reports of the crashing iPhones will turn it into “another Newton.”

Where to start? First, Hazelton implies that Macs crash a lot, which any veteran OS X user will tell you is untrue. I generally reboot my Mac at home (running Tiger) only after installing system updates. I once had my Mac at The Sun running continuously for over 100 days. The iPhone runs on the very same Mac OS X. Crash a lot? I don’t think so.

As for the Newton, that’s a sore spot with long-time Apple fans. The device was ahead of its time, but its Achilles heel was its handwriting recognition feature, which performed so poorly in early models that it was widely ridiculed. The Newton never recovered. If the iPhone does have such a major flaw – and that’s unlikely – “crashing a lot” will not be it.

I’m not sure why these fellows foresee such peril for the iPhone. Perhaps they simply don’t wish to be perceived as Apple fanboys. But I imagine in a couple of years they’ll be served a generous helping of humble pie.