As if the past five months of speculation and predictions wasn’t enough, Apple’s revelation Sunday night that the long-anticipated iPhone will go on sale June 29 triggered a fresh wave of rampant punditry.

On one side we have those declaring the iPhone a runaway success, despite its unavailability; on the other side are voices just as certain it will prove an embarrassing failure. If nothing else Apple has achieved a remarkable marketing coup: when was the last time a company managed to generate a near-incessant six-month media buzz for the mere promise of a product?

Apple fans generally fall into the camp of those expecting big things from the iPhone. They envision Apple meeting or exceeding its sales target of 10 million units through 2008. Apple and AT&T, the cell phone service provider with whom Apple has partnered, have both received more than 1 million inquiries about the product. And investors, too, seem enthused: since Apple announced the iPhone on January 9, its stock has vaulted nearly 33 percent, impressive considering the price had already doubled over the previous two years.

The naysayers think Apple has overreached with the iPhone. They say it costs too much (the two models planned are tentatively priced at $499 and $599). They say competition from established cell phone makers Nokia and Motorola will whipsaw Apple. They say the product has been hyped so much that it will almost certainly disappoint the early adopters who will snap up the first models, generating negative chatter that will depress sales.

So what to make of all this? I keep coming back to the introduction of the iPod in 2001. While most commentators back then liked the device, the consensus was that the high price ($399 for the original 5-gigabyte model) and entrenched competition from the likes of Creative Labs and others would prevent the iPod from becoming a serious contender in the MP3 player market. No one, probably not even Steve Jobs himself, foresaw the overwhelming success the iPod would eventually enjoy.

Back then I was writing regularly for The Sun’s Plugged In section, so Apple sent me an original iPod to review. I remember carrying it around the newsroom and getting a great deal of attention. Everybody wanted to play with it. Looking back, I realize what a huge hint that was of the iPod’s potential.

Consider this: regardless of whether you need a new cell phone or can afford its steep cost, would you want to play with one? I challenge anyone but the most technophobic to watch the Apple television ads unveiled Sunday and not have the urge to try it. That is Apple’s ultimate secret – creating an irresistible consumer desire where none existed before.

The critics make some valid points, but don’t imagine that Apple hasn’t considered the challenges of taking a risky leap into the cell phone business. If customers prove unhappy with some iPhone function (or lack thereof), look for it to be rectified in iPhone 2.0. Again, recall the iPod – it didn’t really take off until Apple made significant adjustments to the product line, primarily by making it Windows-compatible and by creating less expensive versions that more people could afford.

Furthermore, Apple under Steve Jobs has not undertaken new endeavors rashly. The iPod was but one example. The creation of its own chain of retail outlets was another. Many ridiculed Apple’s move in spring of 2001 to open its own stores in upscale malls, citing Gateway’s struggles in operating a chain of brick-and-mortar stores. But Apple’s stores have been an unqualified success, and will prove as useful in charming customers into buying iPhones as it has been in boosting the sales of Macs and iPods.

The iPhone enters the cell phone market as the iPod entered the MP3 player market, as a premium product at a premium price but one that had unmatched ease of use. Apple doesn’t expect or need a large chunk of the market for cell phones, as it is aiming squarely for the high-end, most profitable slice of it. As Jobs pointed out in January, the company’s 10 million-unit goal is just 1 percent of the handset market. And the sale of 10 million iPhones, even at the lower price point of $499, translates to $5 billion in revenue – just under what Apple reported in revenue for its most recent quarter.

I'd say the odds are pretty darn good the iPhone will be a monster success for our friends in Cupertino.