For those of you unwilling or unable to get to an AT&T store or an Apple Store this evening to get your iPhone, I found a couple of ways for you to ease the suffering. I know it won’t take the place of the real thing, but until then...

The iSmudginator Use this handy Web-based on-screen iPhone simulator to see how your iPhone will appear with your dirty fingerprints all over it. But be forewarned: when I tried this link Friday evening, the site refused a connection because of user overload. If you can’t get to the iSmudginator itself, you can at least see what looks like here.

The 3D Paper iPhone An intrepid fellow created this Web site, www.buymeaniphone.com, initially to solicit donations to enable him to buy one of the pricey devices. One strong dose of ethical awareness later, he stopped asking for donations. Instead he just wants folks to download a PDF file of is 3D paper iPhone. You print it out, cut along the dotted lines and assemble following the included directions. Whether you actually do this will depend on how desperate/pathetic you are, but I’m not here to judge you. You’ll have to follow your heart on this one.

Posted by David Zeiler at 8:55 PM | Permalink | Comments (0)
                    

If the Apple TV were a character from a sitcom, it would have to be Jan Brady of The Brady Bunch. It hasn’t gotten much love from the media since its March debut (or much before, for that matter), unlike its sister product, the iPhone. Though the media of late has been accused of knee-jerk swooning over most everything Apple does, deserved or not, how does one explain the far more subdued reaction to Apple TV?

A bit of background: Apple TV is a set-top box containing a 40- or 160-gigabyte hard drive ($299 or $399, respectively) that provides access to digital content on your computer, such as video, music or photos, from the comfort of your living room sofa. Apple TV connects to a TV via component video or HDMI (High Definition Multimedia Interface – get used to it, it’s a new standard) while connecting to a PC running Mac OS X or Windows via a home wireless network (Wi-Fi). The device uses Apple’s Front Row software, included on most new Macs, supplies the on-screen navigation of the content on the computer.

Steve Jobs has downplayed the Apple TV as a “hobby,” reviewers gave it a lukewarm response upon its release, and no one has said much about it since, particularly since the iPhone sucked all the air out of the room. The problem with Apple TV is that it doesn’t address existing consumer dissatisfaction the way the iPod and iPhone do.

One of the main reasons Apple decided to jump into the cell phone business is that its research determined most people hate their cell phones, particularly when trying to use it for anything other than making a call. Apple entered the MP3 player market in 2001 for much the same reason: it saw that existing players had significant flaws.

People who already own some sort of set-top box, like Tivo, are generally happy with them. But Apple TV is a different animal; it doesn’t record content for later viewing like Tivo, it’s essentially a bridge for content between your TV and your computer – a function most people have yet to feel they need. Eventually, as more people accumulate digital content on their PCs they want to view on their TVs, and Apple properly integrates the device with the Internet, Apple TV should get more attention.

And one more thing for folks who, as I was, intrigued by the concept of Apple TV but reluctant to shell out the dough: I soon realized I already owned all the tools necessary to jury-rig my own crude but effective version of Apple TV. With the help of a $20 video adapter I plugged my MacBook into my A/V receiver in my living room. The MacBook connected to my wireless network automatically and was able to stream content not only from my PowerMac G4 tower upstairs, but also from a networked hard drive. I even was able to use Front Row to access the G4’s music and photos, though the video refused to play. However, using iTunes to access the G4’s video files directly via the Shared Library feature, I launched the series finale of Stargate SG-1 and watched the whole episode with nary a hiccup. And my MacBook uses the 802.11g wireless protocol, not the newer, faster 802.11n standard built into Apple TV.

Sorry, Apple.

Posted by David Zeiler at 5:20 AM | Permalink | Comments (0)
                    

About two weeks ago, Apple carefully and quietly seeded review models of the iPhone to a select few. Among them: Walt Mossberg of the Wall Street Journal, David Pogue of The New York Times, Steven Levy of Newsweek and Edward C. Baig of USA Today. Each reviewer works for a major publication, is a seasoned and well-respected journalist/technology critic and has a history of saying nice things about Apple products. For reasons beyond explanation, yours truly was omitted from this list.

The reviews agree on most points, particularly the major ones: the iPhone may have a few flaws, but overall it justifies the hype and represents a breakthrough in personal communications devices. One is forced to conclude that either 1) the iPhone really is the genuine article; or 2) Steve Jobs has discovered a way to extend the range and power of his legendary Reality Distortion Field. For the uninitiated, the RDF is a term that describes Jobs’ ability to warp an audience’s perception of whatever he’s hawking such that they’ll believe it’s far more extraordinary than it actually is.

Check out what these guys are saying:

The bottom line is that the iPhone is a significant leap. It’s a superbly engineered, cleverly designed and imaginatively implemented approach to a problem that no one has cracked to date: merging a phone handset, an Internet navigator and a media player in a package where every component shines, and the features are welcoming rather than foreboding. The iPhone is the rare convergence device where things actually converge.

-- Steven Levy

We have been testing the iPhone for two weeks, in multiple usage scenarios, in cities across the country. Our verdict is that, despite some flaws and feature omissions, the iPhone is, on balance, a beautiful and breakthrough handheld computer. Its software, especially, sets a new bar for the smart-phone industry...

-- Walt Mossberg & Katherine Boehret

The mania over Apple's iPhone launch has created stratospheric expectations that are near impossible to live up to. Yet with a few exceptions, this expensive, glitzy wunderkind is indeed worth lusting after. That's saying a lot. After months of hype, Apple has delivered a prodigy — a slender fashion phone, a slick iPod and an Internet experience unlike any before it on a mobile handset.

-- Edward C. Baig

But even in version 1.0, the iPhone is still the most sophisticated, outlook-changing piece of electronics to come along in years. It does so many things so well, and so pleasurably, that you tend to forgive its foibles. In other words, maybe all the iPhone hype isn’t hype at all. As the ball player Dizzy Dean once said, “It ain’t bragging if you done it.”

-- David Pogue

Such sentiments will stoke further consumer desire for the iPhone, supplying Apple with still more free advertising. Back in March Harvard Business School professor David Yoffie told USA Today that he estimated the media frenzy over the iPhone had generated $400 million in free advertising. I’m no Harvard professor, but I’d wager the figure has more than doubled since then, and that’s not including the full-scale coverage the product launch will get over the weekend. It’s nearly incomprehensible: $1 billion in free advertising for a single unavailable product. Even Steve Jobs may never be able to top this.

Posted by David Zeiler at 2:52 PM | Permalink | Comments (2)
                    

As this week wears on, the iPhone hysteria will only get worse. By Friday at 6 p.m. when The Most Hyped Device of All Time goes on sale, it has been estimated that the average U.S. citizen will have heard or read about the iPhone 10,472 times. Okay, I just made that up. But I can’t be too far off, can I?

Evidence of the deepening iPhone madness continues to accumulate. A few of my favorite examples from recent days:

The line starts here The Vicarious Music Web site spotted two guys yesterday who appeared to be the first in line to buy an iPhone from the Apple Store in Manhattan. The site provided several photographs as proof. If the pair is serious, they will sit on a New York City street for four days... waiting to buy a phone.

Accessorize, accessorize, accessorize An Associated Press story on the iPhone hype reported that though no consumers yet own the product, more than 1,100 peripheral items are available on eBay, “including colorful holsters, touch-screen protectors and car adapters.”

Locked and loaded Electronic device security took on a whole new meaning Monday morning when AppleInsider reported that the first iPhones had been delivered to select locations – accompanied by “armed personnel.” As AppleInsider explains: “Armed guards are extremely unusual for freight coming out of the Asian sector, those familiar with the matter explained, and are typically reserved for shipments containing riches such as gold and diamonds.”

Quantifiable craziness The Blackfriars Marketing Web site is using its blog to track the “iPhone Buzz Index” – defined as how many iPhone news articles turn up in a search conducted on Google News at exactly 9:45 a.m. EDT each day for the previous 24-hour period. How many iPhone stories would you guess typically appear in one day? A thousand? Two thousand? Not quite. An accompanying chart, updated daily, shows that about 6,000 stories on the iPhone appear in a typical 24-hour period, although there was a spike over the weekend of 8,225 on Saturday and 9,973 on Sunday. And I’m sure you read every one of them.

Posted by David Zeiler at 3:04 AM | Permalink | Comments (0)
                    

While I’m happy about the bit of WWDC news that more mainstream commercial games will be coming to the Mac -- it will give Windows PCs “switchers” one more reason to let go of the Dark Side -- I can’t say I’ll be playing them. (Okay, I might break down and get Madden NFL 2008.) I’m sure they’re great, but I rarely have the kind of extensive leisure time necessary to enjoy those kinds of games.

When I do get a few minutes to play, however, I prefer shorter, simpler games, which are fairly abundant for Mac OS X. One of my favorites is Monster Fair, a pinball simulation from Japan-based LittleWing. Back in the 1980s, my much younger self wasted countless hours (and quarters) on such pinball classics as High Speed, Comet and Pinbot. Back in the 1990s, I sought out Mac-based pinball computer simulations, but the experience left much to be desired. I found a few, two of them early LittleWing efforts: Crystal Caliburn and Eight Ball Deluxe. They were excellent for their time but the hardware of the era couldn’t adequately simulate a real pinball machine.

For years I paid little attention, though occasionally I’d stumble on a pinball simulation that departed too much from the classic table games by relying on gimmicks only possible in video games (Disney/Pixar’s Pinball Panic springs to mind). Then last summer I discovered Monster Fair and found that LittleWing had kept plugging along all these years releasing new pinball games, each time improving the graphics and simulated physics.

As LittleWing’s newest, Monster Fair boasts the most lush graphics and smoothest game play yet (and it's Universal Binary -- compatible with Intel-based Macs). It’s almost like I’m back at an arcade in the 80s, except I’m not blowing all my quarters. For those that fondly remember the days when you could still find a pinball machine in an arcade, Monster Fair will provide a welcome diversion when you have a few minutes to spare. And in a testament to the classic nature of pinball, my 7-year-old likes it, too.

You can download a time-limited trial (you get to play for only 60 seconds at a time) of Monster Fair or any of LittleWing’s older pinball simulations from the company’s Web site. Should you choose to buy a key code for a full version of the game, your credit card will be charged 2,980 Japanese yen, which converts to about 25 U.S. dollars or 100 U.S. quarters.

Posted by David Zeiler at 5:03 AM | Permalink | Comments (0)
                    

As my colleagues in The Sun newsroom learned that technology columnist Mike Himowitz had written a piece advising against rushing into buying Apple’s iPhone, several advised me to rebut his arguments. After reading his column, however, I must admit that I concur with much of what he says (did I really just say that?). Mike’s reasons for not buying an iPhone right away are rational and make perfect sense. I’m just not sure that rational thinking applies in this case. No matter how practical the reasons for not storming the Apple Stores on June 29, thousands of people will do it anyway.

Being one of the first to own an iPhone is simply not a rational decision. It’s more akin to the decision to buy a 50-inch HDTV or designer anything. Yes, you’ll pay through the nose. Do you really need it? No. Do you already have something not nearly as impressive that serves your purposes just fine? Probably. But the desire to have it overwhelms all other considerations. The uncontrollable urge to have an iPhone will seduce more than enough people to make the product an instant hit, no matter how irrational purchasing one now may seem.

One more thing: Mike implies in his column that the only folks lining up to buy the iPhone will be “breathless Apple fanatics.” First of all, most people who own Macs are not fanatics (yours truly excepted), but regular folk who just want a computer that works without a fuss. The true “Macolytes” probably make up less than half of Apple’s customer base (I know of no way to reliably measure this, but I’m basing it on the range of Mac users I’ve encountered over the years).

And remember, an entire category of Apple customers – the majority of those who own iPods –have never owned a Mac. The iPhone, like the iPod, is not a Mac, and Mac ownership is not required. The iPhone is a consumer electronics device that will appeal initially to a particular demographic of well-heeled, trendy early adopters – only some of whom regularly drink Jobs’ legendary Kool-Aid.

Posted by David Zeiler at 2:35 PM | Permalink | Comments (1)
                    

The iPhone doesn’t just have the bloggers, analysts and news sites mesmerized; several research firms have now added their voices to the cacophony, conducting polls of potential iPhone customers to gauge interest in the product. The first poll, by a Seattle-based company called M:Metrics, had lots of promising data on iPhone. Although the second poll, jointly conducted by IDC of Framingham, Mass., and Market Insight Corporation of Palo Alto, Calif., also points to boffo iPhone sales, its analysts seem preoccupied with ways the device could fail.

First, the upbeat news: the M:Metrics survey, conducted in April, sought the opinions of 11,060 mobile subscribers in the United States and 5,293 in the United Kingdom. Of those two samples 14 percent in the U.S. and a jaw-dropping 30 percent in the U.K. expressed “strong interest” in buying an iPhone. That translates to 19 million top prospects in the U.S. with another 7 million in the U.K., according to the data M:Metrics has published. That’s the highest level of interest anyone thus far has estimated.

Mark Donovan, senior vice president and senior analyst at M:Metrics, called the number of interested U.S. consumers “an impressive figure, when you consider the installed base of most high-end devices rarely approaches one million and respondents were informed of the price point as well as of the AT&T exclusive.”

In a Computerworld Web site article, Donovan noted that while high monthly contract fees or potential technical glitches could create problems for the iPhone, he did not suggest such a fate inevitably awaited the iPhone.

The IDC report offered a bit more of a, shall we say, negative spin. “Mass consumer adoption of the iPhone not a certainty,” warns the headline on the press release. This survey solicited the opinions of 456 people who happened to be shopping for a mobile phone on a Web site called MyProductAdvisor.com and volunteered to answer the questions. (So much for a scientific sample, eh?) The press release states that “only” 10 percent said they would buy an iPhone at its announced prices of $499 and $599 along with a two-year contract with carrier AT&T. Nearly 18 percent more of the respondents, IDC says, would go for the iPhone if its price dropped to $299. Nearly 60 percent of those who responded were “interested” in the iPhone, whether or not they wanted to buy it. By my calculations, that means 17 percent of the “interested” group are likely iPhone customers.

If this survey has even a shred of validity, it’s great news for Apple. The 10 percent of the respondents who expressed willingness to buy the iPhone is 10 times the number Steve Jobs set as his target. It’s even higher than the 7 percent market share that Piper Jaffray analyst Gene Munster has projected for the iPhone sales in 2009. Apple knows that most customers will balk at the cost. What’s notable is that 10 percent of current cell phone users in both polls say they are willing to pay it. And by the time all those folks own an iPhone, Apple will have released at least one moderately priced model to capture the next tier of customers.

But IDC’s analysts see only dark clouds on the iPhone horizon. “While the allure of owning the next ‘cool’ device will undoubtedly have early adopters – and die-hard Apple fans – queuing up to get the iPhone regardless of the price, the associated costs of ownership will persuade many others into a ‘wait and see’ position,” IDC Director of Mobility Research Shiv K. Bakhshi, PhD, is quoted in the press release. He also dings Apple and AT&T for a “lack of clarity” on the service plans. True, we don’t know how many minutes that customers will get or what the monthly fees will be. But the iPhone doesn’t go on sale until June 29. Call me crazy, but I bet Apple and AT&T will disclose the service plan details by then.

It gets worse. Chris Hazelton, a senior analyst of Mobile Device and technology Trends at IDC, speculated in a Computerworld Web article that if the early buyers of the iPhone don’t like it, the negative chatter will rapidly torpedo the device. Hazelton went on to make this show-stopping statement: “It’s a complicated phone, basically a computer, and like computers, like Macs, it may crash, maybe a lot.” Then the Computerworld paraphrases Hazelton’s theory that reports of the crashing iPhones will turn it into “another Newton.”

Where to start? First, Hazelton implies that Macs crash a lot, which any veteran OS X user will tell you is untrue. I generally reboot my Mac at home (running Tiger) only after installing system updates. I once had my Mac at The Sun running continuously for over 100 days. The iPhone runs on the very same Mac OS X. Crash a lot? I don’t think so.

As for the Newton, that’s a sore spot with long-time Apple fans. The device was ahead of its time, but its Achilles heel was its handwriting recognition feature, which performed so poorly in early models that it was widely ridiculed. The Newton never recovered. If the iPhone does have such a major flaw – and that’s unlikely – “crashing a lot” will not be it.

I’m not sure why these fellows foresee such peril for the iPhone. Perhaps they simply don’t wish to be perceived as Apple fanboys. But I imagine in a couple of years they’ll be served a generous helping of humble pie.

Posted by David Zeiler at 1:39 PM | Permalink | Comments (3)
                    

This morning on Yahoo! Finance I noticed a press release for a multi-platform video game – Disney Princess: Enchanted Journey -- due out this fall. Knowing my daughter would be interested, I scanned the list of systems on which the game will run. I’m seeing PlayStation 2, Wii and Windows PC. As usual, there is no mention of a Mac version.

The game sounds promising, too. From the press release:

In Disney Princess: Enchanted Journey for Wii, PlayStation 2 system and PC, girls play as their own customized heroine, taking part in a fantastic adventure and helping the Disney Princesses restore order in their kingdoms. Girls exercise their creativity by choosing their character's name as well as customizing her look - selecting hair color, skin tone, dresses and more. As they meet and interact with their favorite Disney Princesses, girls discover that each Disney Princess has a unique story and magical world. These stories inspire players as they ascertain the attributes of being a true princess -- courage, friendship, trust and discovery. The game's two-player mode allows girls and their moms or friends to work together to fix the princess worlds.

What about it, Steve? My daughter is counting on you.

Posted by David Zeiler at 1:18 PM | Permalink | Comments (1)
                    

Since we’re not getting Mac OS X 10.5 “Leopard” and its automatic backup feature “Time Machine” until October, I thought this would be a good time to tell you about a shareware backup utility called SuperDuper!

About six months ago, with the idea of having one network-accessible drive to which I could back up all of my Macs, I bought a 500-gigabyte Buffalo LinkStation for much less than I paid for my very first hard drive (a 40-megabyte wonder circa 1990).

So I had plenty of space, and plugging the LinkStation into my wireless router made it available to both my G4 Mac tower and my MacBook. But which backup utility to use?

I prefer to create complete backups of my hard drives that include every file. In the event that a primary drive goes south, I want to be able to restore it EXACTLY as it was, right down to location of the Desktop icons. I also want the ability to retrieve an individual file easily, should the need arise.

Because of a component of Mac OS X’s Unix underpinnings called permissions, copying files the plain old Mac OS 9 way doesn’t work if you like full, bootable backups. How each backup utility handles this issue is critical. Several of those I tested, such as Apple’s own imaginatively named Backup, worked around the permissions problem by backing up mainly data such music, documents, videos and the like, as well as certain preference files. But that won’t give you a full, bootable backup.

SuperDuper!, created by a tiny software company called Shirt Pocket, came up with what I consider a great solution to the permissions issue in a feature-rich, easy-to-use and reasonably priced ($28) package.

The SuperDuper! answer to the permissions problem is a common Mac OS X sight: disk images. Disk images are commonplace in Mac OS X; many software files Mac users download arrive as disk images, which appear at first to be a single file. When you double click on it, a second icon appears on the Desktop, which behaves as though it were a hard drive or removable media such as a USB flash drive.

This turns out to be a great way to generate and maintain backups of hard drives, particularly because SuperDuper! uses a special kind of disk image called a sparse image. Usually a disk image is a fixed size; once created, it can’t be enlarged to hold more data. But like a balloon, sparse disk images consume only as much space as the data they contain. So when you add more data, the sparse disk image grows to accommodate it – perfect for maintaining a backup of an ever-filling hard drive.

Should you need to access a file on the backup, all you need do is double-click on the disk image, and a mirror of your Mac’s hard drive as it was when you last ran SuperDuper! appears on your Desktop.

Like many good backup utilities, SuperDuper! offers a “smart update” option to ensure that your existing backup image matches what’s on your hard drive. The process is much faster than generating the entire backup from scratch. The software checks both the Mac hard drive and the backup disk image, copying new files to the image while updating or deleting those that the user has changed since the last backup. Of course, you still need a backup storage drive large enough to handle your ballooning sparse disk images. But external hard drives with 500 GB of storage can be had for under $300; those with 300-400 GB have dropped under $200.

Other things I liked about SuperDuper!:

Universal Binary: It runs on both the older Power PC-based Macs as well as the newer Intel-based Macs.

Informative interface: When SuperDuper! is doing its thing, it conveys its progress with constantly updated statistics on files checked, files copied and files deleted. For the hopelessly geeky, it even tells you how fast it’s copying in megabytes per second.

Network-friendly: SuperDuper! doesn’t care where your backup disk is – it can be internal, USB external, FireWire external or on a network -- so I can back up my MacBook wirelessly to the LinkStation. Most excellent.

Scheduler: Though common to any quality backup utility, SuperDuper! provides a very clean, straightforward way to schedule automatic backups.

Of the half-dozen or so OS X backup utilities I tested, none had the combination of features, efficient operation, and low cost of SuperDuper! You can download a free trial from the company’s Web site; it’s functional, but disables some of the really useful features such as Smart Update.

Posted by David Zeiler at 5:25 AM | Permalink | Comments (1)
                    

As usual, Mac fans are disappointed with a Steve Jobs keynote. The reaction to Jobs’ Monday address at the Worldwide Developers Conference has tended mostly toward “no new Mac hardware” with a generous helping of “we’ve seen most of this Leopard stuff before.” Even Wall Street gave it a thumbs down, shaving $4.30 off Apple’s stock price.

While people shouldn’t fault Apple for failing to produce new hardware at a developer’s conference (it’s a bonus if it happens), the dissatisfaction with Jobs lengthy Leopard presentation is his own fault. Leopard, the next major version of Mac OS X slated for October release, dominated the keynote. At last year’s WWDC, after demonstrating many of the same elements he showed Monday, Jobs teased that he could not reveal some “top secret” features for fear of tipping off rival Microsoft. The gang up at Redmond, still desperately trying to finish up the long-delayed Windows Vista operating system, had no prayer of cribbing anything from Jobs’ August presentation. In fact, Microsoft was forced to bail on numerous features it had promised years earlier just to get the darn thing out the door.

My theory is that Jobs was concerned some of Leopard’s features might not be ready in time for its release. Learning from Microsoft’s mistakes, he labeled Leopard’s less certain features “top secret” and let the Mac rumor sites speculate on what marvels were to come, generating hype Apple could not hope to fulfill.

I watched the keynote on the streaming QuickTime feed the other night. As Jobs ran through his 10 Leopard features, I noted that only the first three – the new Desktop, the new Finder and Quick Look – had not already been previewed at last year’s WWDC. Fine features they are, but not quite deserving of the label “top secret.”

Don’t get me wrong. I can’t wait to use Leopard on my Macs, regardless of how often Jobs pre-announces its features. But after waiting more than nine months, we get only three cool-but-not-terribly-enthralling user interface enhancements? This warranted secrecy?

When you raise expectations the way Jobs did, people assume they’re going to be blown away. You have to wonder if Jobs simply exaggerated last August to fuel continued interest or if there are in fact more “top secret” features yet to be revealed. We won’t know until October, I suppose.

More thoughts on Jobs’ WWDC keynote:

Leopard looks great -- Unmet expectations aside, Jobs highlighted several things Monday that will significantly improve Mac OS X. I’m looking forward to Stacks, a way to put folders full of related things to which you’d like quick access in the Dock. Clicking on the Stack causes icons of its contents to spread out in an arc (or in a grid, if you prefer) so you can find and select the file you need. I also liked the way the Sidebar will now automatically include the icons of any Macs on your network (and thus easy access to anything on them) – no browsing or logging in required. And I’m sure I’ll heavily use the Quick Look feature, which lets you view any file – a photo, presentation, text document, video, anything -- without actually opening it.

Games – Both EA and id Software made major Mac-related announcements. EA plans to start offering Mac versions of major titles simultaneously with its releases for other platforms, such as Windows and Sony’s PlayStation. John Carmack of id Software showed off a new game engine that is compatible with OS X, meaning they, too, will be offering Mac versions of new games concurrent with those of other platforms. This redresses a grievance Mac gamers have had for many years. Mac versions of major games historically have arrived many months after their PC counterparts, if they arrived at all. While gaming has never been central to the Mac, the increased attention from game developers will make a significant segment of the Mac community very happy and offers further proof of the health and viability of the platform.

Safari for Windows – Regarding my comments on why Apple would release a Windows version of its free Web browser, it appears I was only partly right. I surmised that Apple was using Safari as bait to lure more Windows users to switch to the Mac. A post by an astute reader pointed out that John Gruber noted on his Daring Fireball Web site that browsers do indeed generate income via the search window in the toolbar. Gruber also suggested several other compelling reasons for Apple’s surprising move; his site is recommended reading for fans of the Mac.

Posted by David Zeiler at 3:51 AM | Permalink | Comments (2)
                    

Safari for Windows was THE bombshell of Steve Jobs’ keynote at the Worldwide Developers Conference in San Francisco earlier today. While Jobs explained the move by talking about his desire to increase Safari share of Web browsers, there must be more to it than that.

As most everyone knows, Web browsers are given away for free. Apple has invested some degree of its limited resources to create a Windows-compatible browser that will generate exactly $0 in revenue and will serve to annoy the restless, competitive giant that is Microsoft.

At least when Apple made the iPod Windows-compatible, it was to grab market share with the goal of making piles of money, a plan that has succeeded spectacularly.

Ironically, Microsoft discontinued support for Internet Explorer on the Mac shortly after Apple introduced Safari in 2003, seeing little point in devoting resources to a product that had no monetary or strategic value.

So what is Jobs up to, anyway?

The only explanation is that Safari for Windows is that it’s bait, a means of luring Windows users into sampling yet another Apple product. According to Apple, the iPod/iTunes combo has helped bring many Windows users into Apple Stores and many leave Mac owners – “switchers,” as Apple likes to call them. Analysts call this the “halo effect.”

Safari has even more potential to siphon off Windows users into the Mac universe. While music is popular, not everyone will buy an iPod and use iTunes. But virtually everyone who uses a computer uses a Web browser.

I’ve seen a lot of grousing from Mac users in forums over the past six months that Apple has “abandoned” the Mac in favor of pushing its multimedia fare (iPods, downloadable movies, Apple TV, the iPhone). When you step back for a minute, though, it becomes clear that all of Apple’s extracurricular activities serve to push more people towards the Mac. Safari on Windows is just one more element of that strategy.

When I get the time I will watch Jobs’ keynote on via QuickTime on Apple’s Web site. I will have more thoughts on his other announcements tomorrow.

Posted by David Zeiler at 6:42 PM | Permalink | Comments (1)
                    

As we Macophiles wait for whatever golden nuggets of news His Steveness throws our way today during his keynote at the Worldwide Developers Conference, I thought I’d launch what I hope will be a regular feature of this blog. Each week I’ll try to spotlight a piece of Mac shareware that I have found particularly impressive.

I can’t take credit for today’s pick; my 7-year-old daughter, Mandy, requested this program a few weeks ago after having enjoyed using it at her school. Called Tux Paint, it’s a basic but very nicely executed drawing/painting program. Best of all is the price – free.

Geekier readers might already know that “Tux the Penguin” is the official mascot of the Linux operating system, a free, Unix-like alternative to Mac OS X and Windows. In a reversal of the usual way these things go, Tux Paint was developed first for Linux then ported to the two mainstream operating systems as well as even more obscure platforms such as FreeBSD and BeOS.

Downloading and installing the OS X version of Tux Paint is straightforward (open the disk image, than drag the icon to your Applications folder). The main program is a compact 6.5 megabytes, but I recommend downloading the “Rubber Stamps Collection” as well, a separate 12.8 megabyte download. If you have a broadband connection (cable or DSL) you’ll have both files in about a minute.

The program follows general art software conventions by having its tools stacked in two columns on the left side of the screen. Tool modifiers, like brush sizes and shapes, appear on the right side. The modifiers change depending on which tool is selected. A color palette stretches in a row across the bottom of the screen. All the buttons are large and clearly labeled with both text and icons, requiring minimal adult explanation/assistance. The Tux Paint Web site recommends the program for ages 3 to 12.

Users can load line drawings to color or create art from scratch. For younger children, the hundreds of rubber stamp images make it easy to create art with recognizable objects. There’s even a scaling tool for the rubber stamps so you can make them exactly the size you want. Printing is possible, but a separate parental control setup program allows Mom and Dad to disable it should Junior’s overuse of pricey color ink become an issue.

One Tux Paint feature some may find annoying (although kids almost surely will love it) is its many sounds. Each action generates a distinct sound effect. When you’re drawing across the screen, the sound actually follows your movement across the stereo field to the other side. Cool.

Mandy has played with Tux Paint frequently since I installed it on my G4 Mac. In fact, it has become her favorite computer activity. With summer vacation upon us, I would recommend Tux Paint to all parents of elementary school children. Its simple, intuitive interface and a price that suits all budgets make this a no-brainer.

Posted by David Zeiler at 3:54 AM | Permalink | Comments (1)
                    

If anyone thought my post on the long-term success of the iPhone was optimistic, they need only read the comments by Piper Jaffray analyst Gene Munster in a report widely discussed on Mac Web sites yesterday. His sales estimates for 2007 (3.2 million) and 2008 (12.4 million) are significantly higher than Apple’s own projections of 10 million for the entire 18-month period, but it’s Munster’s 2009 projection that drew the most attention.

Based partly on comparisons to the iPod’s trajectory of sales, and partly on the iPhone’s multi-function capabilities (phone-iPod-Internet), Munster has estimated Apple will sell 45 million of the devices in 2009 alone. Wow. That would require the iPhone to capture 7 percent of the U.S. market, and 2.8 percent of the global market, several times Apple’s goal of 1 percent. Munster also raised his price target for Apple’s stock from $140 to $160.

If nothing else, Munster’s estimates make Apple sound conservative.

And a little luck never hurts, either. Yesterday the U.S. International Trade Commission banned the importing of certain cell phone chips made by Qualcomm because they infringe on patents held by Broadcom.

The iPhone uses Broadcom chips, but much of its competition – primarily the pricey smart phones offered by Verizon Wireless and Sprint Nextel – use the now-taboo Qualcomm chips. Currently shipping models will be unaffected, but any new models would be blocked -- possibly driving frustrated high-end customers straight to the iPhone.

Unless Qualcomm manages to win its inevitable appeal, Gene Munster might need to hike his price target on Apple’s stock yet again.

Posted by David Zeiler at 2:15 PM | Permalink | Comments (0)
                    

As if the past five months of speculation and predictions wasn’t enough, Apple’s revelation Sunday night that the long-anticipated iPhone will go on sale June 29 triggered a fresh wave of rampant punditry.

On one side we have those declaring the iPhone a runaway success, despite its unavailability; on the other side are voices just as certain it will prove an embarrassing failure. If nothing else Apple has achieved a remarkable marketing coup: when was the last time a company managed to generate a near-incessant six-month media buzz for the mere promise of a product?

Apple fans generally fall into the camp of those expecting big things from the iPhone. They envision Apple meeting or exceeding its sales target of 10 million units through 2008. Apple and AT&T, the cell phone service provider with whom Apple has partnered, have both received more than 1 million inquiries about the product. And investors, too, seem enthused: since Apple announced the iPhone on January 9, its stock has vaulted nearly 33 percent, impressive considering the price had already doubled over the previous two years.

The naysayers think Apple has overreached with the iPhone. They say it costs too much (the two models planned are tentatively priced at $499 and $599). They say competition from established cell phone makers Nokia and Motorola will whipsaw Apple. They say the product has been hyped so much that it will almost certainly disappoint the early adopters who will snap up the first models, generating negative chatter that will depress sales.

So what to make of all this? I keep coming back to the introduction of the iPod in 2001. While most commentators back then liked the device, the consensus was that the high price ($399 for the original 5-gigabyte model) and entrenched competition from the likes of Creative Labs and others would prevent the iPod from becoming a serious contender in the MP3 player market. No one, probably not even Steve Jobs himself, foresaw the overwhelming success the iPod would eventually enjoy.

Back then I was writing regularly for The Sun’s Plugged In section, so Apple sent me an original iPod to review. I remember carrying it around the newsroom and getting a great deal of attention. Everybody wanted to play with it. Looking back, I realize what a huge hint that was of the iPod’s potential.

Consider this: regardless of whether you need a new cell phone or can afford its steep cost, would you want to play with one? I challenge anyone but the most technophobic to watch the Apple television ads unveiled Sunday and not have the urge to try it. That is Apple’s ultimate secret – creating an irresistible consumer desire where none existed before.

The critics make some valid points, but don’t imagine that Apple hasn’t considered the challenges of taking a risky leap into the cell phone business. If customers prove unhappy with some iPhone function (or lack thereof), look for it to be rectified in iPhone 2.0. Again, recall the iPod – it didn’t really take off until Apple made significant adjustments to the product line, primarily by making it Windows-compatible and by creating less expensive versions that more people could afford.

Furthermore, Apple under Steve Jobs has not undertaken new endeavors rashly. The iPod was but one example. The creation of its own chain of retail outlets was another. Many ridiculed Apple’s move in spring of 2001 to open its own stores in upscale malls, citing Gateway’s struggles in operating a chain of brick-and-mortar stores. But Apple’s stores have been an unqualified success, and will prove as useful in charming customers into buying iPhones as it has been in boosting the sales of Macs and iPods.

The iPhone enters the cell phone market as the iPod entered the MP3 player market, as a premium product at a premium price but one that had unmatched ease of use. Apple doesn’t expect or need a large chunk of the market for cell phones, as it is aiming squarely for the high-end, most profitable slice of it. As Jobs pointed out in January, the company’s 10 million-unit goal is just 1 percent of the handset market. And the sale of 10 million iPhones, even at the lower price point of $499, translates to $5 billion in revenue – just under what Apple reported in revenue for its most recent quarter.

I'd say the odds are pretty darn good the iPhone will be a monster success for our friends in Cupertino.

Posted by David Zeiler at 11:09 AM | Permalink | Comments (1)
                    

The Mac universe never fails to pounce on a controversy, or, as often happens, a perceived controversy. Last Thursday two sites, The Unofficial Apple Weblog and Ars Technica, published reports revealing – gasp! – that Apple embeds personal information in the new DRM-free songs the iTunes Store Plus started offering on Wednesday. Expressions of alarm and outrage followed on those sites and many others. Comments along the lines of, “Why is Apple tracking me?” and “My privacy rights are being violated” proliferated in forums and comment logs on the sites where the stories appeared.

One line of thinking suggested the purpose of the information – which apparently includes only the buyer’s name and iTunes e-mail account – was to track pirates who would put the new restriction-free songs on file-sharing networks. That idea wavered on the realization that such information could easily be faked, and would prove an unreliable means of pursuing music thieves.

The more ethical participants in these discussions also pointed out that even if tracking illegal file sharing were Apple’s intent, law-biding citizens had nothing to fear and no cause for concern. The more paranoid participants worried the pirates would insert other people’s names on songs they intended to share, leading to the prosecution of innocents.

Then a few astute folks realized that Apple did not just start embedding this information into DRM-free tracks this week. Apple has done this since the original iTunes launched in 2003. Anyone can use the “Get Info” command on any song purchased from the iTunes Store at any time and sure enough, the metadata listed under the “Summary” tab shows your name an e-mail account. I looked at the tracks from the first album I bought from iTunes, “Fever to Tell” by the Yeah Yeah Yeahs on May 25, 2003 and voila – my personal data.

Far from easing worries, this discovery fueled more speculation on just what sort of nefarious plans did Apple have for this embedded data (sigh).

People should know by now that most retailers collect personal information on its customers, even if they do find it distasteful. Think about it. Have you ever bought anything in Radio Shack? By the time they finish asking for your address, phone number, shoe size and blood type, you’re ready to drop that S-Video cable on the counter and walk out.

At first Apple stonewalled inquiries from the media about this issue, as is its habit, but it did drop one clue to the folks at Wired. Talk to Mike Gartenberg, an Apple spokesperson advised via e-mail. Gartenberg, an analyst with Jupiter Research who follows Apple, offered an entirely reasonable explanation for Apple’s actions. As stated in the Wired piece:

The information could be used as a proof of purchase, or to facilitate upgrades (songs previously bought through iTunes can be upgraded to higher fidelity versions for an extra 30 cents). The identifier could help identify songs missing from albums (iTunes offers a "complete album" feature), as well as to thwart piracy.

The Wired article goes on to say (and I agree) that if embedding such data is indeed primarily for Apple’s own use in serving its iTunes customers, perhaps Apple should bury and encrypt it. That way unfortunates who have their iPods stolen won’t have their e-mail addresses exposed to thieves and attempts to fake the data to allow illegal file sharing will be much more challenging, if not impossible.

With all that said I hope we can put this brouhaha behind us and get back to pondering far more important issues, such as when the iTunes Store will make the Beatles back catalog available.

Posted by David Zeiler at 12:58 PM | Permalink | Comments (5)